#美联储利率政策 The Fed is almost certain to cut rates tonight, but the key is not whether they will or not, but how Powell explains it and how big the voting disagreements are. After reviewing these pieces of information, I feel apprehensive.

A 87.6% probability of a rate cut sounds stable, but did you notice that among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 oppose or are skeptical about further easing, while 3 members support the rate cut? This kind of division hasn't occurred since 2019 and has only happened 9 times since 1990. What does this indicate? It indicates that the Fed is already torn internally, and the policy guidance may be vague, even leaning hawkish.

What’s even more heartbreaking is that the data released after the meeting will instantly render economic forecasts outdated. The officials' outlook for 2026 is mostly theoretical; the real variables lie in the subsequent data. It’s like trying to navigate with an expired map—before you know it, you’re off course.

In this uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market is the easiest to be exploited. Everyone is waiting for signals from the Fed, and traders are eagerly trying to anticipate every word from Powell; this sentiment can easily be manipulated by large players. Expectations of interest rate cuts push prices up, while hawkish comments drive prices down, leaving retail investors caught in the middle being repeatedly harvested. My advice is simple: remain cautious until the interest rate cut is confirmed, and observe Powell's attitude before taking action. The true intention of policies is often hidden in implications, so there is no need to rush.