#美联储降息 My first reaction upon seeing this Bitfinex report is: don't be blinded by the term interest rate cut.

On the surface, interest rate cuts are favorable, supporting assets and sounding good. But the data behind it reveals the truth – the unemployment rate has hit a three-year high, consumer credit card debt has surpassed $1.2 trillion, and the average interest rate is over 20%. What does this indicate? It indicates that the underlying logic of the market has already deteriorated.

I have experienced too many situations like this. When the central bank starts lowering interest rates, it seems like a market rescue, but in reality, it often means paying for greater risks. Weak employment data combined with high personal debt is not support; it's a warning light flashing in a minefield.

Lowering interest rates can support prices for a while, but it cannot sustain a collapse in consumption. Many people will rush in when they see interest rates drop, thinking it’s an opportunity to get on board, but the result is often just being the bag holder. History has proven many times that the most severe declines often occur in the later stages of loose monetary policy.

At this point in time, caution is essential. It's not that one cannot act, but rather to understand what one is betting on. Are you betting that interest rate cuts can continue to support the market? Or are you betting that the economic fundamentals can improve? The probabilities of the two bets are vastly different. Those who can survive on-chain are the ones who remain clear-headed during the craziest times.