#美联储降息 The core logic of the Fed's meeting this time is already very clear - the adjustment phase of the interest rate cut cycle is coming to an end.

Focus on three signals:

**The hawkishness of the dot plot exceeds that of the dissenting votes**. Six members expect that interest rates should not be lowered this time, which is a stronger signal than the two public dissenters. In other words, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts next year are still too optimistic.

**Powell will emphasize a higher threshold**. From the adjustments in the wording of the statement to the remarks about rate cuts in early 2026, the core message is to tell the market: don’t expect consecutive rate cuts; each subsequent one will depend on the data. This is a typical model of assessing at each meeting, not a pre-confirmed path for rate cuts.

**The combination of growth and inflation is changing pricing**. Morgan Stanley's viewpoint is noteworthy - stronger growth combined with persistent inflation suggests that real interest rates may need to remain relatively high. This will compress the valuation space for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds.

In the past two days, the on-chain liquidity needs to focus on tracking large inflows. Such a shift in the central bank's monetary policy expectations typically triggers institutional rebalancing, and changes in whale addresses' holdings will reflect the market's true sentiment in advance. The data performance before the January meeting next year will become the next key trigger point.