#美联储政策 The Fed's dot plot has just been released, and the data speaks volumes. Among the 19 officials, 7 advocate for no interest rate cuts in 2026, which is a significant proportion. The median expectation is only a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points, while the more aggressive faction (advocating for 75-150 basis points) only has 4 members.

The key point is that the hawkish signal conveyed this time is not only reflected in the dissenting votes of the two committee members, but the dot plot itself shows that the threshold for interest rate cuts has been raised. In other words, the market's previous expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts next year may still be overestimated.

From the perspective of on-chain funds, such policy signals usually trigger adjustments in institutional positions. Next, it is important to closely track the flow of large funds, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges, and the changes in holdings of major contract addresses. Expectations of interest rate cuts often manifest in on-chain data ahead of time—whales are usually more sensitive than the market.

The expectation that these high interest rates will last longer will put noticeable pressure on risk assets in the short term.