Geopolitical Central Asia Corridor (Japan - 20 billion prying open Russia's backyard) with macro data tonight at 21:30 (US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP))

1. Practical Analysis of Two Major Signals: Stories and Traps

On the long-term narrative of the "Japan-Central Asia Corridor":
This is indeed an excellent use case for stablecoins and crypto payments in the "de-SWIFTing" and enhancing cross-border efficiency, representing a long-term bullish option that may continue to ferment in the next 6-12 months. However, for now, it is just a wonderful long-term story, and "distant water" cannot quench "near thirst."
It is essential to stay clear-headed: the implementation of such geopolitical strategies takes place over years. It cannot change the K-line trend next week or next month, nor can it hedge against the current macro selling pressure and leverage liquidation. It should not serve as a reason for your current full-margin gamble, but it can help you hold more firmly when prices drop to key support levels. It is one of the sources of confidence that allowed me to dare to make an "ultimate ambush" at positions like BTC 80000 and ETH 2400 in my last plan. The current task is to survive and wait for the "distant water" to arrive.

Short-term speculation on "US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP)" data igniting the market:
Tonight's US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is a "tool" for creating short-term fluctuations and buying points; it is merely a "catalyst" that determines the speed and depth of the decline, affecting the slope of the drop rather than the turning point of direction. Strong data may accelerate the decline, while weak data may bring a brief rebound, but it is difficult to reverse the weekly adjustment trend. The best strategy is to avoid participating in data games and only observe whether the results will push the price to our ambush zone.
The market is currently choosing to digest the "hawkish rate cut" and excessive leverage through a decline. The "first line of defense" we previously set has been partially breached, and the market is evolving towards a scenario of "deep correction."
My practical guideline: Before major data releases, especially when market leverage is high (a funding rate of 0.03% is already a warning signal), the best action is often to "not act", giving up all short-term rebound fantasies, and concentrating funds and attention on lower, more solid, and higher risk-reward fortress areas. We are not gamblers; we are hunters. Hunters do not go out to hunt in a thunderstorm but wait for the rain to pass and the footprints of prey to appear.

Optimal Altcoin Rotation: Do not actively allocate to altcoins before BTC and ETH stabilize, keep two observation indicators:
Optimism (OP): Buy around 0.255, stop loss at 0.24, target at $0.38. Core belief zone: 0.200−0.230. This area is set based on historical lows and psychological levels, suitable for positions willing to take a long-term approach.
OP has switched from the valuation logic of "ecological leader" to the mode of "chip clearing under extreme panic." Any purchase is the ultimate bet on the "project's survival" and the "future bull market recovery of the ETH ecosystem," which is a highly risky and potentially high-return "lottery-type" investment.

Uniswap (UNI): Buy around 5.50, stop loss at 5.10, target $7.50. Deep value zone: 4.50−5.00. If the cost line ultimately fails, the market will look for the next support platform, this area is a safer long-term layout point.
Core Judgment: UNI is testing its value bottom line as the "cornerstone of DeFi." Falling below the average cost price means the market believes its core business value is shrinking; if it can hold its ground, it indicates that long-term capital recognizes its valuation bottom line.

Signal to start: We must wait for BTC daily to stabilize above 90,000, and ETH daily to stabilize above 3,050, before considering allocating the remaining funds to altcoins.

II. Core Combat Plan Reaffirmation: Responding to Change with Constancy

Regardless of the result of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the market's final choice will be reflected in the price and K-line. My plan covers all possibilities. My entire layout points and strategies are completely consistent with the previous response, as they were based on the key support and resistance at the weekly level, and will not change because of a single data point. The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is just an accelerator, potentially pushing the price more quickly towards the battleground we have preset.

BTC: First battlefield 88,000-90,000, ultimate battlefield 80,000-82,000. No action below.
Interpretation:
1. The price has broken below the 88,000-90,000 range, causing a deterioration in the short-term structure, with a stop-loss at 87,500. The weekly support zone at 80,000-82,000 is the last strategic stronghold that the bulls must defend. If this level is lost, it will open the path to 75,000 or even lower.
2. Abandon the plan to "buy the dip" around 88,000, adjusting the core ambush zone to: 80,000 - 82,000. This area is the long-term trend line and a zone of dense chips, representing a battle zone with high certainty and high risk-reward ratio.
3. Extreme situation contingency plan: If it drops below 80,000, the next observation zone is at 75,000.
4. Key Risk Control Levels:
Positioning/Building a Position: Around 81,500 (pyramid-style incremental).
Stop loss: 78,000 (effective break below the lower edge of the core fortress).
Take profit: 92,000 - 95,000 (rebound to previous resistance zone)

ETH: The line of life and death is 3,000-3,050, with a deep pullback level at 2,400-2,500. If it breaks, then wait and see.
Interpretation:
1. Breaking below 3000 points is significant, with a stop-loss at 2950, which means a large amount of leveraged long positions are being liquidated, and market sentiment has shifted from "breakout expectation" to "pessimistic wait-and-see." The next effective support is at 2,700 - 2,750, and a stronger area is at 2,400 - 2,500.
2. Immediately cancel any buy plans in the range of 3000-3050. After breaking below, this area has turned from support to resistance.
New Ambush Zone set to:
Weak rebound speculation zone: 2,700 - 2,750 (can test with a small position).
Core layout area: 2,400 - 2,500 (an important support platform for 2024, with an excellent risk-reward ratio).
3. Ambush/Building Position: Area 1 is around 2,720; Area 2 is around 2,450.
Stop Loss: Area 1 Stop Loss 2,650; Area 2 Stop Loss 2,350.
Take profit: Area 1 target 3,000-3,100; Area 2 target 2,800-3,000.

SOL: The only focus is 108-115. Ignore its fluctuations at other times.
SOL has fallen from "strong innovative high leader" to "weakly linked follower". Its next stage of movement completely depends on:
Can BTC stabilize in the 80,000-82,000 range to provide bottom support for the entire market.
Whether market risk appetite (Risk-On) has returned is usually confirmed by BTC and ETH rebounding and stabilizing first.
Any operation on SOL is a high-risk gamble before the above two conditions are met.
Ideal ambush zone (high risk-reward ratio, main battlefield)
Location: 108 - 115 USDT
Logic: This area is a strong weekly support platform that has been validated multiple times in 2024, and it is also a zone of significant trading volume. When the price reaches this point, the valuation risk has been significantly released, and it has the potential for a rebound with a high risk-reward ratio.
Operation: You can deploy the main position in batches in this area.
2. Extreme Buying Zone (high odds, but requires extreme market panic)
Position: 80 - 90 USDT
Logic: If the macro environment deteriorates sharply and a liquidity crisis occurs in the market, SOL may test the long-term trend support before the bull market began in 2023. This is an extreme contingency plan prepared for a "black swan."
Operation: Only when the market experiences widespread panic and multiple currencies drop to similar depths can a small portion of the funds in the reserve team be utilized for left-side layout to seek ultra-high odds of a sharp rebound.

Before the data release (as of 21:30):
No operations, keep at least 70% of cash off-exchange. Do not open new positions, do not adjust existing orders.

After the data is released (21:30 - early the next day):
Scenario 1: Strong data, market plummets.
This is what we are looking forward to. Observe patiently and do not catch falling knives. Wait for a clear lower shadow line or stabilization pattern on the 1-hour or 4-hour candlestick chart. If the price accurately drops to the BTC 88,000-90,000 or ETH 3,000-3,050 range mentioned above, and buy orders are absorbed, then execute the first phase of the exploratory layout according to plan (33% of the total position).

Scenario 2: Weak data, market surges.
This is the trickiest situation. Never chase the price up. If the price moves directly away from our ambush zone, then calmly give up on this trade. The market is never short of opportunities, but what is lacking is capital. If there is a rapid surge followed by a quick significant drop (false breakout), and it tests the aforementioned support zone again, it will be considered a better entry signal.

Scenario 3: In line with expectations, narrow fluctuations.
Maintain the status quo. Continue to wait. The market will shift its focus to CPI, and volatility will temporarily decrease, which is not our main battleground.

Bottom-line discipline:
If the price violently breaks through the key support mentioned above without any pause, cancel all pending orders and adopt a wait-and-see approach. Wait for a clearer weekly level stop-loss signal.

Excellent traders handle the "known unknowns" (such as US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP)), while top traders cope with the "unknown unknowns". The story of the Japan-Central Asia corridor is a wonderful "unknown unknown" that offers imagination for the future. But for now, the "known unknown" is tonight's data volatility, and the "known known" is your funding curve and stop-loss discipline.

Protect your bullets well, and let them aim at the most certain target of risk-reward ratio - those key prices that have been repeatedly tested. When the market's panic or greed sends prices into your ambush zone, calmly pull the trigger.
Waiting for the market to give an answer tonight. We are just executors.
#现货黄金再创新高 #日本央行明年或两次加息 #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #ETH走势分析 #BTC行情分析
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