CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in January 2026 is 47.1%, the probability of a rate cut of 25 BP is 19.9%, and the probability of a rate cut of 50 BP is only 8.2%. This combination of "high interest rates dominating and weak expectations for rate cuts" has a core impact on cryptocurrencies concentrated in three dimensions: liquidity, risk appetite, and market volatility.

- On the liquidity front, the mainstream expectation of maintaining the Intrerest Rate unchanged (47.1%) has dashed hopes for easing, and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding encryption assets like BTC and ETH remains high. Funds are more inclined to flow into U.S. Treasuries and other fixed-income products, resulting in overall tight liquidity in the encryption market, making it difficult to secure ongoing financial support.
- In terms of risk appetite, the extremely low probability of interest rate cuts (25BP only 19.9%, 50BP 8.2%) directly suppresses market risk sentiment, making it difficult for the dollar to weaken significantly. The valuation of encryption currencies lacks external support and is easily affected by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, inflation rebounds, and other negative influences leading to short-term corrections.
- In the face of market fluctuations, there are significant divergences in policy expectations. The trends of cryptocurrencies are closely tied to economic data such as inflation and employment, and can experience severe volatility before and after data releases. Among these, ETH is more sensitive to policy changes than BTC, and high β altcoins will exhibit more pronounced fluctuations.
- On the institutional behavior level, due to the extremely low probability of significant easing (a 50 BP rate cut), institutions are becoming more cautious in their positioning, mostly participating in short-term trading with small positions, lacking the motivation for long-term allocation, which further limits the market's upward potential.

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