#劳动力市场 Seeing the U.S. labor cost growth drop to a four-year low, alarm bells started ringing in my head. On the surface, this is good for easing inflation, the Fed can continue to cut interest rates, and asset prices will be pushed up— but the problem lies precisely here.

What lies behind the decline in labor costs? Slowing hiring, record layoffs, and young employees being forced to accept pay cuts. This is not a signal of a healthy economy; it is the cold reality of the job market. Strangely, inflationary pressures have not truly dissipated, prices remain firm, yet within the Fed, there is a push to lower interest rates to stabilize employment—this is essentially betting on a balance, a balance that is very easy to lose control of.

The "stagflation" of the 1970s came about this way. Economic stagnation combined with high inflation, and the central bank's stop-and-go policies ultimately entrenched the problems. Now the Fed faces the same dilemma, with severe divisions among officials, indicating that no one really has a firm grasp.

What should we be vigilant about on the chain? Don't be fooled by the superficial prosperity of loose policies. Whenever policies are uncertain, market risks are brewing. The real opportunity is not in FOMO chasing highs, but in understanding where the cracks in this system are. Learn to identify policy cycles and recognize risk turning points, so you can survive in the long run. Short-term fluctuations are just noise; the key is to survive until the next real opportunity.