#美联储降息 Seeing the Fed's forecast of only planning to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026, I have to say something honest - this is a wake-up call for the crypto world's "rate cut frenzy" fantasy.

Do you remember the rhetoric from last year about "the interest rate cuts are here, the bull market is starting"? I have seen quite a few people get badly hurt because of that expectation. Now the market has finally come to realize the reality: the rate cuts are far lower than expected, and even when the new Fed chair took office, the actual interest rate was still close to zero. What does this mean? The liquidity environment is actually not as loose as imagined.

The key is that the inflation rate needs to hover around 3%, which directly limits the space for significant monetary easing. Those projects and schemes that rely on the logic of "central bank intervention" are even more awkward—without sustained expectations of easing, how long can these things survive?

My experience is: don't be fooled by macro stories. The Fed's actual actions are often much more conservative than the market's initial expectations, especially during times of policy transition. Now there are many projects and KOLs promoting a "rate-cut bull market", but the real risk awareness should be: assume liquidity remains tight, ask yourself if what you invested in can still survive.

Don't wait until the end of 2026 to regret.