#美联储降息 The Fed's rate cut has been fully priced in, and JPMorgan says US stocks are due for profit-taking. Does that sound familiar? I believed the same ten years ago.

The problem is, this time of year at the end of the year has always been the easiest time to get cut. Christmas, the settlement period approaching, market liquidity is terrible, options positions exceeding 50%, BTC pressed at the 100,000 mark, ETH stuck at 3200— isn’t this a classic lock-up trap? Institutions have long calculated this.

I’ve seen too many people take over in the story of the "profit-taking wave." On the surface, it’s said that dovish Fed policies are good, QE restart provides ample liquidity, but what’s the reality? Market sentiment is low, and a slow decline has become the mainstream expectation. This is the most torturous kind of market—no sharp drop, no sharp rise, just constant cutting in frustration.

The key is to recognize one fact: prices have already fully reflected all good news. In other words, everything that should have gone up has already gone up, and what’s left is a game of chance. Locking in profits before the end of the year is the logic of institutions, not retail investors.

My advice is straightforward—don’t rush to chase now, and don’t add to your positions just because you’re optimistic about the future. Defense is more valuable than offense. Wait for liquidity to truly rebound, wait for the New Year’s sentiment to revive—that’s when the real opportunities come. Living longer means earning more.