This afternoon at 16:00, the largest options settlement window in history will open. The nominal settlement scale of BTC options this time exceeds $20 billion, making it a typical event-level variable capable of changing short-term price structures.

The current Max Pain level for BTC is around 95,000. Based on the current price, pushing the price directly to that level would require an extremely large amount of spot and derivatives capital working in concert, which is not easy.

The overall open interest in call options is clearly dominant. Under this structure, even if the price cannot fully reach the Max Pain point, a short-term rally can be enough to force a large number of put options to abandon their exercise early or hedge passively, creating a short-term price push effect.

It is almost certain that significant volatility will occur today, and given the current position structure, the probability of upward price disturbance is higher. As the settlement approaches at 16:00, the Gamma effect becomes more concentrated, making it easier for the price to experience accelerated pulls and volume fluctuations—this is a typical characteristic of the options market.

Today is not about "whether there will be a trend," but about when and how the trend will be released. The next step is not to guess the direction but to closely monitor key time points and follow the flow of capital to execute.