#美联储政策 The Fed's power restructuring is happening faster and more aggressively than expected. On the surface, it's a 25bp rate cut, but in reality, the Treasury is quietly seizing power from the central bank—term premium rising, SOFR plummeting, and large-scale liquidation of basis arbitrage positions. These seemingly scattered signals actually point to the same underlying logic.

The most interesting aspect is the attitude of the liquidity market. Saylor last week aggressively increased his Bitcoin holdings by $963 million, and over at BitMine, Tom Lee’s team also placed a $429 million buy order during the ETH plunge. This isn’t a technical rebound; it’s the market’s early pricing of liquidity shifts by institutions.

And what about the $4 billion ETF outflows? This is the part I find most distorted in market understanding. Most people interpret it as a "panic retreat," but in reality, it’s a structured liquidation caused by the collapse of basis trading—93% of trading days below the 5% breakeven point, leaving arbitrage positions no room to operate. Grayscale accounts for 53% of the outflows, while BlackRock and Fidelity actually saw net inflows. This isn’t capitulation selling; it’s more like a liquidation of highly leveraged carry trades.

After clearing out these noises, the remaining capital structure is actually cleaner. With the government-led liquidity and the weakening independence of the central bank, volatility will likely increase in the coming months. But for spot holders, this is actually a period of accumulation. Short-term chaos is the pain of a new order taking shape, and the next wave of market trends is brewing amid this uncertainty.