#日本央行加息政策 Seeing today's scene, all I could think of was the memories from 2013. That year, Japan also began adjusting its monetary policy, with Haruhiko Kuroda implementing quantitative easing, leading to yen depreciation, rampant arbitrage trading, and what was the result? Bitcoin skyrocketed from a few hundred to over a thousand dollars, then a policy shift occurred, and the entire market was bloodied.

History never repeats exactly, but it often rhymes. This time, the Bank of Japan raised rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, and Ueda Shunsuke's tone was still very "hawkish"—"If the economy develops as expected, interest rates will continue to rise." It sounds mild, but for arbitrage traders relying on low-yen leverage, this is a red light.

In the past 24 hours, 160,000 traders were liquidated, with $550 million in forced liquidations, and Bitcoin plummeted from near 90,000 to over 84,000. This isn't some mysterious market movement; it's a clear chain of cause and effect: change in interest rate expectations—rising funding costs—leverage liquidations—liquidity drying up. I've experienced such cycles many times.

The key is the 85,000 support line. If the technicals can't hold, retesting 80,000 or even lower is highly probable. But what I want to say is, don't just focus on short-term K-line charts. Central banks' rate hike cycles often take 3-6 months to fully transmit to the market, and the current panic might actually be a window for strategic positioning. The bear market of 2015 seemed hopeless, but those who quietly accumulated then later became winners.

Waiting until the central bank assesses the real impact of this rate hike before taking action is much smarter than blindly bottom-fishing.