"2026: The Time Cycle Indicates a Bear Market, but the Liquidity Cycle Points to a Bull Market—Bitcoin Is Entering a 'Dislocation Cycle.'"

If we only look at the historical time structure, 2026 is almost destined to be a "bear market year."

In previous Bitcoin cycles, the bull market peaks usually occurred 12–18 months after the halving, with deep retracements concentrated in the following year. From the three cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, the timing rhythm is highly consistent. Based on this framework, 2026 should be in the phase of de-bubbling, de-leveraging, and sentiment cooling.

But this time, the issue is that macroeconomic conditions will act as influencing factors. The last bull market occurred during an interest rate cut cycle.

From the global monetary cycle perspective, 2022–2024 was an extreme and rapid tightening cycle, while the probability of rate cuts and re-expanding liquidity significantly increases in 2025–2026. Whether it’s fiscal pressure, debt structures, or economic growth itself, high interest rates cannot be sustained long-term. Once funding costs decline and market risk appetite recovers, the traditional "bear market environment" will be weakened.

This creates a rare structural contradiction:

Bitcoin’s "time cycle" is downward, but the "liquidity cycle" is upward.

In past cycles, these two were highly aligned:
Bear market = tightening, Bull market = easing.

But after the entry of ETFs, institutional funds, and long-term passive allocations, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity has been further amplified, and dependence on retail sentiment cycles is decreasing.

Therefore, what is more likely to occur in 2026 is not the traditional "deep bear + long-term decline," but a structurally bearish market supported by liquidity:
1. It is in a retracement phase in terms of time
2. Prices are unlikely to experience a collapse on a historical scale
3. Volatility converges, but the bottom is significantly elevated

In other words, it might be a "year of discomfort," but not necessarily a "year of despair."

If we view Bitcoin within a larger asset pricing system, 2026 resembles a transition from "highly elastic growth assets" to "quasi-macroeconomic assets":
Gains are less crazy, drops are less severe, but the response to liquidity is more direct and rational.

The real danger is not 2026 itself, but the moment when time and macro factors once again align in the same direction.

Before that, Bitcoin is likely to navigate a cycle shape different from history, caught between the tug of "bear market logic" and "liquidity easing logic."

Cycles are not invalidated, but they are evolving.