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"2026: The Time Cycle Indicates a Bear Market, but the Liquidity Cycle Points to a Bull Market—Bitcoin Is Entering a 'Dislocation Cycle.'"
If we only look at the historical time structure, 2026 is almost destined to be a "bear market year."
In previous Bitcoin cycles, the bull market peaks usually occurred 12–18 months after the halving, with deep retracements concentrated in the following year. From the three cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, the timing rhythm is highly consistent. Based on this framework, 2026 should be in the phase of de-bubbling, de-leveraging, and sentiment cooling.
But thi
If we only look at the historical time structure, 2026 is almost destined to be a "bear market year."
In previous Bitcoin cycles, the bull market peaks usually occurred 12–18 months after the halving, with deep retracements concentrated in the following year. From the three cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, the timing rhythm is highly consistent. Based on this framework, 2026 should be in the phase of de-bubbling, de-leveraging, and sentiment cooling.
But thi
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