The gold path towards new historical highs... What awaits us in 2026?

After 2025, which saw unprecedented jumps in gold prices, all eyes are on what the coming year will bring in terms of opportunities and investments. In mid-October of this year, the precious metal surpassed the $4,300 per ounce mark, levels never seen before in the markets. But will this bullish wave continue, or are new corrections awaiting investors?

Major Financial Institutions’ Forecasts for 2026

Official analysts generally share a relatively optimistic outlook. HSBC expects gold to rise to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an expected average of $4,600 throughout the year. Similarly, Bank of America has also raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an annual average of $4,400.

Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into global exchange-traded gold funds (ETFs) and continued demand from central banks. J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach approximately $5,055 by mid-2026.

Based on these estimates, most analysts lean toward a range between $4,800 and $5,000 as potential resistance levels, with an annual average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Factors Driving Continued Rise

Global Demand Continues to Rise

Total demand for gold in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, up 3% from the previous year, while its value increased to $132 billion, a 45% rise. While these figures seem positive, what truly draws attention is that gold ETF inflows (ETFs) achieved massive flows, raising their managed assets to $472 billion, with investors holding 3,838 tons, approaching the all-time peak of 3,929 tons.

Central Banks’ Gold Purchases Persist

Global central banks continued buying gold at a strong pace, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average. Notably, 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024. China, India, and Turkey led the buyers, and this trend is expected to continue through the end of 2026.

Supply Fails to Keep Up with Growing Demand

This is where the real solution lies. Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a slight 1% increase year-over-year. More importantly, gold recycling rates decreased by 1%, deepening the gap between demand and supply. Due to rising extraction costs, which reached $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025 (highest level in a decade), increasing production will be slow and costly.

Economic and Monetary Contexts

Decline in Interest Rates

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 to a range of 3.75-4.00%, with indications of further possible cuts. Expectations suggest the Fed could reach an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. This trend enhances gold’s appeal as a hedge, especially with declining real bond yields.

Weakening US Dollar

The dollar index fell about 7.64% from its peak at the start of 2025 until November. Simultaneously, US 10-year bond yields dropped from 4.6% to approximately 4.07%. This combination makes gold a more attractive option for foreign investors and supports bullish forecasts.

Global Debt and Financial Risks

Global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies. Bloomberg Economics data shows that about 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025 as a safe haven.

Geopolitical Tensions

Reports indicate that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased demand by 7% year-over-year. As tensions escalated in the Taiwan Strait and global energy fears grew, the spot price jumped to over $3,400 per ounce in July, continuing its ascent.

Technical Insight: Where Is the Price Heading Short-Term?

Gold closed trading on Friday, November 21, 2025, at $4,065 per ounce, after touching a high of $4,381 on October 20. The price maintains strong support at the $4,000 level, which is a key dividing line.

If the price breaks this level with a clear daily close, it could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement level) before any new upward attempt. Conversely, $4,200 is the first strong resistance level, and breaking it opens the way toward $4,400 and $4,680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 50, reflecting a neutral state between buying and selling, while the MACD indicates the overall trend remains bullish. The analysis suggests continued sideways trading within a range of $4,000 to $4,220 in the near term.

2026 Scenarios: Rally or Correction?

Most Likely Bullish Scenario (

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to reach historic highs exceeding $5,000, according to major institutions’ forecasts. Continued central bank buying and new investor demand could support this scenario.

Potential Correction Scenario

HSBC warns of a correction toward $4,200 per ounce in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits. However, the bank rules out a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs. Goldman Sachs also warns that sustained prices above $4,800 could put the market to a “price credibility test.”

Conservative Scenario

If inflation declines and market confidence is restored, gold may enter a long-term stabilization phase, potentially preventing reaching the targeted levels of $5,000 per ounce.

Gold in the Middle East Region

The Middle East is experiencing a notable increase in gold reserves held by central banks. In Egypt, forecasts suggest gold could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, representing a 158.46% increase over current prices.

Based on the global forecast of $5,000 per ounce, gold prices in Saudi Arabia could approach 18,750 to 19,000 SAR )exchange rate between 3.75 and 3.80 SAR(, while in the UAE, it could reach approximately 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

Summary

The journey of gold through 2026 will require close monitoring of economic and geopolitical contexts. Current indicators point to a strong likelihood of continued rise toward levels of $4,800 to $5,000, supported by institutional and central bank demand, and a weak dollar. However, caution regarding short-term corrections of $200 to $300 may be necessary. Investors tracking gold forecasts for the upcoming period should consider that the precious metal is no longer just a speculative asset but has become a strategic safe haven in diversified investment portfolios.