Bitcoin loses momentum at US$ 90,000 as miners face capitulation; short positions reach US$ 250 million

The leading cryptocurrency started this Tuesday under consistent pressure, retreating to the US$ 87,700 region after new failures to break through the US$ 90,000 barrier. This level has solidified as the short-term critical point, functioning as a liquidity concentration zone and a source of sell offers over the past few weeks. Even with gold prices reaching historic highs in parallel, Bitcoin remains dissociated from this movement, breaking the typical positive correlation pattern during risk aversion moments.

The Technical Deadlock and the Lack of Clear Direction

The price remains trapped in a sideways range marked by high volatility and lack of a defined trend, with oscillations within a narrow interval reflecting the fragile balance between buyers and sellers. On the four-hour chart, the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages act as recurring dynamic resistance, delimiting the medium-term control zone.

As long as the price stays below these averages, the probability of lateral continuation or new tests at lower supports remains high. Reclaiming this level is essential for restoring a more solid bullish trend. Each attempt to advance is accompanied by increasing volume of sell orders, limiting stronger directional movements and keeping the market without a clear advantage for either side.

Large Investors Open Protection with US$ 250 Million in Short Positions

Recent data indicate that institutional investors have opened short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling approximately US$ 250 million. This movement suggests a defensive strategy against the risk of further corrections, rather than an aggressive directional bet against the market. However, the impact of these positions is amplified in a scenario of reduced liquidity.

With the year-end approaching, many traders have reduced their exposures to preserve gains accumulated throughout 2024. This seasonal behavior significantly contributes to the retracement of global liquidity, increasing the likelihood of abrupt movements even without new catalysts. The reduced depth of order books amplifies market sensitivity to smaller operations, intensifying short-term volatility.

Miners Face Unprecedented Structural Capitulation

On a fundamental level, the network is experiencing a severe stress period for mining operations. A recent report points to a 4% drop in the hash rate—the sharpest since the first half of 2024—occurring simultaneously with a 9% monthly retracement in Bitcoin’s price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not recorded since April 2025.

This combination of extreme oscillation and declining revenue per exahash forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. The capitulation process tends to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure, eliminating marginal agents forced to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs.

China’s Energy Reallocation: Up to 10% of Global Hash Rate at Risk

One of the main catalysts for this decline was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in the Xinjiang region, removing about 1.3 GW of capacity from the network in just 24 hours. The decision is linked to energy reallocation toward data centers focused on artificial intelligence, an activity that currently offers significantly higher margins than Bitcoin mining.

Estimates suggest that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost. This reorganization is likely to concentrate mining in operators with access to cheaper energy and more efficient infrastructure, significantly raising the sector’s entry barrier.

Cost Compression and the Historical Recovery Dynamics

For the Bitmain S19 XP model, the electricity break-even price has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year—a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this cost compression face increasing risks of economic infeasibility.

Despite current difficulties, studies indicate that at least 13 countries are already participating in Bitcoin mining with some level of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. Historically, drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction over 90-day windows, the average return over six months was 72%, suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure and the potential for recovery.

Technical Divergences Signal Weakening of Selling Pressure

Despite weakness in the spot price, momentum indicators are beginning to signal constructively. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index records higher lows while the price forms lower lows—a classic bullish divergence setup. Analyses indicate that similar patterns in previous cycles preceded significant upward movements.

Although divergences do not act as isolated triggers, they indicate weakening of the selling pressure and increase the likelihood of reversal when additional confirmation factors emerge. This dynamic, combined with miner capitulation and structural reduction of selling pressure, suggests that the market may be accumulating strength for more defined moves once liquidity returns after the holiday period.