As gold and silver surge ahead, when will Bitcoin accelerate? How should Japanese yen investors view this?

Friday’s crypto market exhibited an interesting divergence phenomenon. After the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision, both gold and silver broke through historical highs—silver surged up to 5%, reaching a new record of $64; gold also rose over 1%, approaching $4,300. However, Bitcoin, which market expectations have been high for, hovered around $93,000, repeatedly consolidating and failing to follow the strong rally of these “safe-haven assets.”

Dollar Weakening: Why Only Gold and Silver Break Through?

The US dollar index plummeted after the FOMC meeting to its lowest level since mid-October, which should have been a perfect catalyst for Bitcoin’s rise. However, data shows that Bitcoin only marginally increased in the past 24 hours, currently trading around $93,000, while Ethereum gained just 1.74% to approximately $3,200.

Ironically, the altcoins that were expected to perform the worst showed divergence. Avalanche (AVAX) fell 0.91% in the past 24 hours, while Cardano (ADA) rose 1.66%. This asynchronous movement indicates a changing attitude toward crypto assets in the market.

Stock Market Rebounds, Crypto Stalls—Signs of Decoupling

Thursday’s US stock performance was a textbook example of “rational recovery.” The Nasdaq index once fell as much as 1.5 intraday but ultimately closed down only 0.25%; the S&P 500 rose slightly, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.3%.

Wintermute’s strategist offered a cautionary perspective: over the past year, only 18% of macro event trading days saw Bitcoin outperform Nasdaq. Thursday reaffirmed this pattern—stock market rebounded, while cryptocurrencies declined.

This reflects a deeper phenomenon: market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been fully digested, and the marginal stimulative effect of easing policies on crypto assets has significantly weakened. As we approach the first half of 2026, investors’ focus is shifting from monetary policy to US cryptocurrency regulation, which could become the decisive factor in the next phase.

Diminishing Selling Pressure, but Rebound Remains Weak

Data analytics firm Swissblock identified a positive signal: Bitcoin’s downward pressure is indeed easing. The second round of sell-offs was noticeably weaker than the first, indicating some market stabilization. However, they also pointed out that these signals are not yet sufficient to confirm a true trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 has been far below expectations. Although the dollar weakened after breaking out of a descending wedge, Bitcoin’s rebound was insufficient to mirror the dollar’s decline. Notably, the last three weekly candles show prominent upper wicks, indicating persistent selling pressure during each rebound, and market bullish confidence remains lacking.

Technical Analysis: Breakthrough or False Break?

On the daily chart, the outlook appears somewhat more optimistic. Since rebounding near $80,000, Bitcoin has formed a “higher low” structure, with increasing market acceptance of the $90,000 level. On Monday, Bitcoin briefly rose to $94,652, indicating a slight upward shift in the rebound high.

However, concerns are evident: the current macro environment should favor a Bitcoin bull run—gold and silver both breaking through, and the dollar clearly weakening—but Bitcoin’s performance has been far less robust compared to other “anti-fiat” assets. This suggests that Bitcoin’s upward momentum may indeed be lacking.

The four-hour chart warrants attention. Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle, with support turning into horizontal resistance around $93,961. A breakout above this level could target the next key resistance zone below $100,000, with the previous high of $99,939 being particularly critical, potentially becoming the primary short-term bullish target.

Bulls vs. Bears: Different Trading Logics

For traders seeking short-term opportunities, the “higher highs and higher lows” structure on shorter timeframes provides a technical basis for continuing the upward trend.

Conversely, skeptical investors should be cautious. Despite the highly favorable macro backdrop (weakening dollar, gold and silver breakthroughs, expectations of liquidity easing), Bitcoin remains lackluster, possibly indicating a lack of sustained upward momentum.

For yen investors, this contradictory market environment warrants caution. As traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver break through, the lagging performance of crypto assets may signal an important shift: the market’s attitude toward overall risk assets is changing, and capital might be reallocating more subtly across asset classes.

Conclusion: Wait for Confirmation or Act Now?

Bitcoin’s consolidation around $93,000 essentially reflects market hesitation. While selling pressure is weakening, the lack of a strong breakout remains a fact. Whether this range is broken will directly determine if a new upward cycle is truly beginning or if this is just a short-term correction within a rebound.