The 2025 Precious Metals Market: Long-term Macroeconomic Factors Are Expected to Take the Lead

Recent market analysis shows that the price movements of gold and silver this year are quite interesting. According to a report from Cobey’s Letter, gold prices are projected to rise from last year's $2,400 per ounce to around $4,500, representing an almost 88% increase. Silver is expected to move even more sharply, with forecasts suggesting it could rise from $29 to over $79 per ounce, an increase of more than 170%.

**The Link Between US Household Asset Growth and Precious Metal Demand**

The report states that gold holdings in the US are about 11%, and silver holdings are around 12%. Although these percentages seem small, their accumulation has contributed to a remarkable increase of $244.5 billion in US household net assets this year. This indicates a clear trend of individual investors diversifying their assets into precious metals in response to inflation risks.

**Surging Global Demand Creating Supply Shocks**

What’s even more noteworthy is the movement of China and India. It is expected that these two countries will purchase between 700 and 900 tons of gold annually until 2024, directly driving up global gold prices. On the supply side, it becomes more interesting as China plans to restrict silver exports starting from January 2026, which could intensify supply shortages. This factor could significantly support silver prices in the long term.

**Short-term Profit-taking Pressure vs. Long-term Structural Upward Factors**

Certainly, short-term profit-taking sales will occur. However, analysts point to more fundamental factors. Expectations of inflation, the major central banks’ easing of benchmark interest rates, and the global central banks’ moves to increase gold holdings are all predicted to continue supporting precious metal prices over the long term. These structural factors could offset short-term volatility.