#比特币价格预测 I find Kong Jianping's perspective quite interesting. In the past, Bitcoin's price increase relied on knowledge diffusion—geeks passing it to programmers, programmers passing it to retail investors, with layers of faith passing the baton. But now, after the entry of ETFs and institutional investors, the game has changed.

Large holdings are locked in as long-term assets, and the number of sellers willing to trade frequently is decreasing, which means supply is truly shrinking. In other words, future price increases may no longer depend on new stories or new retail investors, but rather on the scarcity of circulating chips themselves.

What insights does this give us as retail investors? First, don't be too obsessed with chasing new narratives for airdrop opportunities. Second, projects with long-term lock-in mechanisms are actually more worth participating in. Shrinking supply means the value of early participants' holdings is more stable, and the cost of interaction is relatively easier to recover. Simply put, when choosing projects, look for genuine long-term holding consensus—it's smarter than blindly chasing hot topics.