Bitcoin's decline has clearly slowed down! The key support holds, but analysts warn: the bear market structure remains unchanged
March 3 News: Recent Bitcoin price performance shows selling pressure is gradually easing, but many market analysts believe this does not mean the bear market has ended. The latest research indicates that the market is more likely to enter a consolidation phase rather than immediately start a new upward cycle.
In its latest report, 10x Research stated that amid rising global risk aversion, Bitcoin has not experienced accelerated declines, suggesting downward pressure is easing. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is approaching the 20-day moving average near $68,500, while the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, indicating that market volatility may soon increase.
Data shows that Bitcoin previously rebounded above $70,000 but then fell back to around $68,400. Technically, the key support level at $62,500 has been successfully defended three times in a row, making it an important defensive line in this cycle. Meanwhile, RSI and stochastic indicators are showing upward signs, with technical divergence signals emerging, suggesting market momentum may be stabilizing.
However, analysts emphasize that this change is more akin to a “tactical reversal” rather than a trend reversal. Current volatility is gradually decreasing, and capital flows have improved, indicating the market has not entered an accelerated decline phase, but the overall structure remains within a bear market framework.
Justin d’Anethan, Head of Research at Arctic Digital, pointed out that over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been impacted by multiple macro factors, including trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and changing interest rate expectations. Recently, market sentiment has shifted from panic selling to relative caution, which often signals that prices may enter a sideways consolidation or phased accumulation zone.
Changes in the derivatives market are also a key factor. Crypto industry expert Andri Fauzan Adziima noted that there are currently deep negative funding rates in the futures market, with short positions heavily concentrated, which has driven recent short squeeze movements. Bitcoin previously rebounded quickly from around $63,000, forcing some short positions to close, alleviating selling pressure.
Nevertheless, analysts still advise investors to remain cautious. The market has not yet seen sustained structural capital inflows, and macro factors lack clear bullish catalysts. The overall downtrend from the all-time high has not been fully broken, and in an environment of relatively fragile liquidity, Bitcoin may face multiple resistances in the short term.
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Data: 192.75 BTC transferred out from Wintermute, worth approximately 5.05 million USD