Macroeconomics

On March 5, 2026, from 16:00 to 16:15 (UTC), the price of Ethereum (ETH) recorded a -1.12% return within 15 minutes, with a price range of 2056.69 to 2087.34 USDT, and an amplitude of 1.47%. Market attention during this period significantly increased, volatility intensified, mainstream coins experienced a synchronized pullback, and short-term traders engaged in frequent speculative battles. The main driver of this fluctuation is macro-level liquidity disturbances. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches and the U.S. non-farm payroll data is set to be released on March 6, the market shows divergence in the pace of rate cuts, prompting some short-term funds to choose

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego is heavily investing in Bitcoin, believing it can hedge against inflation and symbolize personal freedom. Robert Kiyosaki warns that a stock market crash is imminent and continues to increase his holdings in Bitcoin and precious metals, remaining confident. They both believe that Bitcoin has long-term value potential, and the current price dip is a good buying opportunity.

Influenced by Middle East conflicts and inflation concerns, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise. Initial jobless claims remain at 213,000, and the January import price index growth was below expectations. The market expects non-farm employment to decline, while the futures market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates only once by 2026. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.134%.

A strategist at TD Securities stated that if the U.S. non-farm payroll report does not show significant weakness, it will not affect the dollar. They believe the market will focus on the Middle East conflict and its impact on the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting ability, rather than employment data. If oil prices remain high, the dollar should stay strong.

U.S. stablecoin giant Circle recently surged nearly 8% in stock price, hitting a four-month high, due to soaring oil prices and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Mizuho Securities raised its target price to $100, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, but became more optimistic about profit prospects. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high, Circle's revenue will benefit accordingly, but market competition and regulatory pressures should still be watched carefully.

In his State of the Union address, Trump announced the "Rate Protection Commitment," requiring the seven major tech giants to bear the electricity costs of data centers themselves, aiming to alleviate voter dissatisfaction caused by rising electricity prices. However, the commitment lacks legal binding force, and its enforcement mechanism is unclear, raising questions about its effectiveness. The electricity demand from data centers could lead to a 12% increase in nationwide electricity consumption, becoming a political focal point.

Bitcoin rebounded to $72,980 on March 5th. Zerohash has applied for a national trust bank license and plans to offer digital asset and other services. Paradex has launched a genesis airdrop and adjusted its tokenomics. Additionally, the US stock market rose supported by economic data, market sentiment is positive, and investors have a favorable outlook on Bitcoin's future.

Bitcoin broke through $72,000 on March 5, driven by three major macro factors: diplomatic contact between Iran and the US CIA, Federal Reserve officials supporting interest rate cuts, and US escorting oil tankers promising to reduce energy supply risks. Strong economic data further supported market risk sentiment.

Wintermute analyst Jasper De Maere pointed out that over the past two months, crypto assets have underperformed other asset classes, but in the current market environment, digital assets may have an advantage due to their relative independence from macro factors. He warned that future performance could weaken due to inflationary pressures caused by geopolitical tensions, and the market is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term.

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego is heavily investing in Bitcoin, believing it can hedge against inflation and symbolize personal freedom. Robert Kiyosaki warns that a stock market crash is imminent and continues to increase his holdings in Bitcoin and precious metals, remaining confident. They both believe that Bitcoin has long-term value potential, and the current price dip is a good buying opportunity.

U.S. February ADP Employment Report shows the private sector added 63,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, indicating a rebound in hiring momentum, but the increase remains moderate and below the post-pandemic peak. The annual salary growth rate remains steady at 4.5%, with construction and education/health services contributing the most new jobs. The report may influence the upcoming March non-farm payroll data.

Under the influence of the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin has risen against the trend, reaching a one-month high, and the overall crypto market is recovering. Factors driving the increase include expectations of fiat currency devaluation, optimistic sentiment about conflict easing, and the upcoming passage of the CLARITY Act, which is expected to benefit the legal status of stablecoins.

Bitcoin price recently rebounded and broke through $71,000, supported by ETF capital flows, position resets, and improved liquidity. Analysts believe that the trend is closely related to the global liquidity environment, but under geopolitical uncertainties, the likelihood of a sustained increase is low, and a significant price drop is also unlikely.

On March 4th, the United States will release the February ADP employment figures. Twelve institutions' expectations for the "small non-farm" data range from 40,000 to 75,000, with overall expectations being relatively optimistic.

Recently, market liquidity has been relatively thin, with BTC dropping rapidly and entering a consolidation phase, while ETH has shown weak performance. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil and precious metals, with funds shifting toward defensive assets. DEX trading volume experienced a pulse release, but overall remains below historical highs, and the market is still in a deleveraging stage. Next week, attention should be paid to several macroeconomic indicators and events such as token unlocks that could cause market volatility.

U.S. stablecoin giant Circle recently surged nearly 8% in stock price, hitting a four-month high, due to soaring oil prices and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Mizuho Securities raised its target price to $100, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, but became more optimistic about profit prospects. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high, Circle's revenue will benefit accordingly, but market competition and regulatory pressures should still be watched carefully.

Ray Dalio pointed out in an interview that gold is the only reliable hedge asset, warning that Bitcoin cannot become a long-term store of value due to four major flaws: privacy issues, lack of backing, technological risks, and its correlation with tech stocks. He analyzed the fiscal crisis facing the United States and called on investors to pay attention to historical cycles and financial balance.

The Middle East conflict intensifies, posing significant challenges to energy and financial markets. Crude oil and gold prices rise in tandem, with supply risks and inflation expectations driving market reactions. The article analyzes the impact of the war on oil and gold prices and explores Bitcoin's performance amid high uncertainty. Key variables include spillover risks from the conflict, shipping costs, and inflation trajectories. In the future, markets will reassess safety and risk asset allocations.

In some parts of Africa, merchants are turning to Bitcoin as everyday currency rather than just an investment tool, due to high inflation in the region. Executive Chairman Masie highlighted the importance of Bitcoin in combating inflation and noted that the tech-savviness of the young population is driving cryptocurrency growth. On-chain data shows that the African crypto market is growing rapidly, offering a vast space for financial inclusion.

Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at approximately $68,040, failing to continue its rebound. Trump mentioned that stablecoin legislation faces banking threats and called for advancing related bills. Mizuho Securities raised Circle's target stock price to $100, maintaining a neutral rating. U.S. stocks closed lower amid volatility due to the Middle East conflict, with investors concerned about geopolitical uncertainties.