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The foreign exchange management authorities finally released over 5 billion in cross-border investment quotas after more than half a year.
From a macro liquidity cycle perspective, domestic funds initially flooded outward due to the exhaustion of yields on underlying assets, causing the on-market funds linked to the Nasdaq and overseas tech sectors to be bought at a premium of 30% or even higher.
This counterintuitive pricing, in essence, is driven by extreme anxiety caused by a scarcity of assets.
I had been monitoring the price difference between domestic and international markets, but due to policy relaxations in cross-border channels, I couldn't incorporate this into my macro quantitative model for precise measurement. To pursue an absolute closed-loop framework, I ultimately abandoned building this cash-and-spot arbitrage position.
Looking back now, over-reliance on historical cycle models indeed caused me to miss out on this highly certain mean reversion profit.
As leading public funds acquire new ammunition and subscription channels reopen, arbitrage capital will flood in quickly.
Macro funds always flow toward the least resistant direction. The sentiment premium that defies mean reversion will inevitably face a double whammy of Davis.