Trump's words are really as unpredictable as the wind direction in the Strait of Hormuz. A few days ago, he was talking about crushing Iran's oil industry, and now he's saying that even if the strait is closed, there can still be a ceasefire. He also took a shot at allies who haven't followed him to fight Iran, telling countries like the UK, "Either come to the US to buy oil, or muster the courage to seize it yourself."

Iran is quite clever in responding. Taking advantage of the US rushing to withdraw, they directly proposed a "Strait Toll Law"—international law says this strait can't be charged, but Iran argues that since they spent money to maintain security, they should be able to collect fees. Think about it—this "security maintenance" money is basically for fighting, right? If there's no fighting, isn't it safe? But in the battlefield, that logic doesn't matter; what's important is that they actually pushed forward with the toll idea.

As a result, if the US pulls out, Iran will firmly establish control over the Hormuz Strait, set up tolls, and score a small victory. The oil-producing countries in the Gulf will definitely suffer huge losses, and Japan, South Korea, and Europe will also be affected. China and India will have to pay for higher oil prices. Russia is happy—oil prices stay high, so their revenue isn't a problem. Israel's situation is uncertain; the conflict with Iran is far from over.

The most absurd part is that the Strait of Hormuz, originally open for free navigation, is now being used as a bargaining chip by both sides. If Trump manages to "negotiate and reopen it," he can even boast about it—yet, it was always open in the first place.

If a ceasefire actually happens within half a month, oil prices might drop back below $90. But after this round of supply chain chaos, the average price of Brent crude has been adjusted by institutions from $63 to $83. The stock market is also falling, especially here—Hong Kong stocks are undervalued, but external factors keep hammering them down. Many chemical plants in Shandong have shut down because Middle Eastern crude oil isn't coming through, and that's no joke.

Looking at this whole scene, each of us is silently paying the price. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌