On April 6, following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on social media, the probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran this year increased to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform. Despite this increase, the probability remains below the 68% maximum on March 29, as the U.S. is ramping up its military presence in the region, and the Trump administration is considering the possibility of occupying Iran's main oil transit hub, Hormuz Island, by 2027. At the time of this article's publication, the trading volume for this prediction contract was approximately $3.74 million.