Ivan623

On April 6, following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on social media, the probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran this year increased to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform. Despite this increase, the probability remains below the 68% maximum on March 29, as the U.S. is ramping up its military presence in the region, and the Trump administration is considering the possibility of occupying Iran's main oil transit hub, Hormuz Island, by 2027. At the time of this article's publication, the trading volume for this prediction contract was approximately $3.74 million.

In the past two years, macroeconomic research has become increasingly saturated.
Thematic focuses change rapidly, opinions are updated more frequently, and analytical notes are becoming more “concise and timely.” Many materials are aimed at emotional appeal and instant reactions, while few are willing to delve into and analyze truly complex, boring, but critically important fundamental mechanisms.
However, recently a team has emerged in the market whose style is noticeably different from most.
They rarely chase hype and almost never participate in discussions that generate traffic. Most of the

The People's Bank of China issued a statement following the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee for the first quarter of 2026, noting increased vigilance due to external uncertainties. Currently, the central bank's monetary policy is guided by the principle of "maintaining stability," and it is believed that there is no need to cut reserve requirements or interest rates, as demand for financing in the real sector remains weak, and economic recovery largely depends on new driving forces such as mid-range high-tech manufacturing.
The worsening situation in the Middle East is leading

Logan: Significant short-term growth in U.S. oil production is unlikely, and inflation remains the main cause for concern
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lori Logan stated at a conference on Thursday that American oil producers are unlikely to significantly increase output in the near future, thereby easing pressure on rising gasoline prices for consumers. She noted that to start new wells, producers need oil prices slightly below $70 per barrel, which is significantly lower than the current level of around $110. Logan added that only with sustained prices at this level will companie

Clear segmentation — premium and outdated products
Price growth does not affect all market segments equally.
According to Taiwanese research firm DRAM Exchange, as of the end of March, the average fixed price for PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb) remained at the previous month's level, and the growth in some outdated products has entered a phase of relative stabilization.
Nevertheless, prices for the latest DRAM, such as DDR5, as well as products for servers, continue to grow confidently, and demand for high-end solutions remains strong. Overall, experts believe that the growth cycle for premium products is

SK Hynix and Micron are also preparing to synchronize price increases
As the world's largest producer of DRAM, Samsung Electronics was the first to secure a 30% price increase, which promises to impact the entire industry.
It is reported that SK Hynix and Micron also plan similar increases in DRAM supply prices in the second quarter and are already conducting detailed negotiations with clients regarding the terms and extent of the increase.
The coordinated actions of the three leading memory manufacturers mean that buyers will face additional price pressures and reduced bargaining power.
Curre

12:00 (UTC+8) - 21:00 (UTC+8) Keywords: Satoshi Nakamoto, Michael Saylor, Japan Exchange Group1. Today marks the 51st birthday of Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto2. Michael Saylor has announced once again the disclosure of information regarding increased BTC reserves3. Trump: Successful rescue operation of an F-15 pilot; a press conference will be held on Monday4. Japan Exchange Group: The Japanese exchange is considering measures to limit cryptocurrency accumulation by public companies5. X Product Leader: The only way to solve the spam problem in crypto accounts is to introduce a reply restri

Kathy Wood Calls 50% Bitcoin Price Drop a "Victory"
Amid a major correction in the cryptocurrency market, ARK Invest CEO Kathy Wood is trying to shift investors' focus by calling the Bitcoin price drop by half from its all-time high a positive signal. The investor shared this during an interview on CNBC.

On April 5th, the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region published an essay reflecting on the economy in the first quarter of 2026. It mentions that the Hong Kong market is active, with an average daily trading volume exceeding HKD 260 billion in the first two months of this year, a 17% increase compared to last year. In March, the market became even more lively, with the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks surpassing HKD 300 billion, an increase of over 8% compared to the same period last year. Investors are increasing the

According to the PRO large order list, the final data on major trades with BTC and ETH over the past 24 hours are as follows: BTC: the total trading volume was $702 million, with $375 million in purchases and $327 million in sales, resulting in a net difference of $48.44 million. ETH: the total trading volume was $728 million, with $365 million in purchases and $363 million in sales, resulting in a net difference of $2.78 million. The latest data indicate that large players continue to place orders at key levels: the net difference in BTC limit orders is $626 million, with a maximum single ord

10x Research posted a message on the X platform stating that the USDT supply in the Ethereum network has surpassed Tron, and that Ethereum could become the main beneficiary of stablecoin growth. It may also serve as the financial backbone for infrastructure managed by Wall Street. Additionally, ETH has fallen 57% from its peak in August 2025, with the current valuation considered relatively low, and capital accumulation continues. 10x Research is reassessing whether ETH is close to a tipping point or facing structural resistance.

According to Foresight News, citing a report by Kyungjae from South Korea, Visa Group president Oliver Jenkins and Steven Carpin, the company’s business head in the Asia-Pacific region, said during visits to a number of South Korean banks that the country is the “best place” to experiment with stablecoins.
Oliver Jenkins noted: “South Korea has 17 million cryptocurrency investors, and in terms of paid subscriptions to the generative AI platform ChatGPT, the country ranks second after the United States. Therefore, South Korea could become a future leader at the intersection of artificial intell

Energy Shock: Stagflation Is Here — The Fed Between a Rock and a Hard Place
McDonald describes the current macro environment as "real stagflation."
Iran's strikes on infrastructure in Bahrain, Dubai, and the UAE have affected the entire energy supply chain — from fertilizers and distillates to aviation kerosene. McDonald believes: even if tensions in the Middle East calm down, the viscosity effect on prices will last "at least 5-6 months." The reason: increasing insurance costs take time to "dissipate," and business return to the region is also slow; regional logistics are broken.
Rising energ

Key Events of the Week
1. Powell Signals a Pause: Energy Shock Does Not Change the Rate Path; Inflation Expectations Become a Red Line
Against the backdrop of the situation in the Middle East worsening and sharp fluctuations in energy prices, disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the trajectory of monetary policy have again come to the surface.
On Monday, Fed Chair Powell, in a speech at Harvard, clearly laid out the regulator’s main position: during short-term inflation pressure caused by an energy shock, the Fed is inclined to keep rates unchanged and to observe changes in prices “th

Opinions of Investment Banks
Goldman Sachs believes that the bullish logic for gold has not changed and maintains its forecast for continued growth. Huatai Securities emphasizes that the long-term logic of reallocating gold assets remains solid. OCBC notes that the reduction in geopolitical risks supports gold prices; however, the main driving factor remains the return of rate cut expectations.
ING believes that the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be a key factor in weakening the dollar. TD Securities and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia think that in the event of es

Market Overview
The US dollar index this week generally demonstrated a "rise amid a pullback and subsequent consolidation." At the beginning of the week, the index confidently increased amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and reached a more than 10-month high. Subsequently, expectations of a de-escalation led to a pullback in the index, but on Thursday, amid worsening risk appetite, it strengthened again, fluctuating around the 100 mark throughout the week. On Friday, after the release of labor market data, the dollar index again surpassed the 100 level.
Spot gold initially showed stre