The Iranians closed the strait again, this world is really a damn makeshift operation.

Ceasefire between the US and Iran.

Yes, you read that right. In the early morning of April 8, 2026, Trump shook hands and made peace with Iran. A two-week ceasefire agreement, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, oil prices plummeted 20 overnight, and Bitcoin shot from $68,000 straight up like a rocket to $72,841.

I shouted in the group chat: "Awesome, back to normal!"

The group exploded. Some wanted to add to their positions, some wanted to go long, some already put their mortgage down payments into the market.

I was also excited.

Because before this, everyone thought World War III was imminent. Iran closing the strait, oil prices soaring, Bitcoin dropping into the $66,000 range, full of stories like "Digital gold is broken" and "Safe-haven assets collapsing."

Then, snap, a ceasefire.

The market instantly FOMOed.

What was I feeling at that moment? Awesome. Like finally relieving constipation after three days.

I immediately added to my position. Went all in. Pushed my last little bit of USDT into the market.

And—

This morning, early morning of April 9, 2026, I vomited in the bathroom.

Not vomit from alcohol, but vomit from the barbecue I ate last night, and my pitiful principal.

Because the Iranian Revolutionary Guard just announced: The strait, again, TM, closed.

Both sides are celebrating their "victory."

Trump said, we won, we forced Iran to open the strait.

Iran said, we won, we didn't let the US destroy our civilization.

Israel said, we also won, we continue bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Then, after Israel bombed Lebanon, killing at least 182 civilians, Iran turned around and said: "The ceasefire was violated, the strait remains closed."

The White House was stunned.

The Pentagon said, we are ready to resume combat at any time.

Trump said, if they violate again, our strikes will be "bigger, better, stronger."

Bigger. Better. Stronger.

Listen to this—are we fighting a war or advertising?

Is this not a makeshift operation?

Do you know what Bitcoin is doing right now?

Still hovering around 71,000.

The strait is closed, ships are stuck, hundreds of oil tankers are stranded there, but Bitcoin hasn't dropped.

Why?

Because the market thinks, "They probably won't really fight."

That's the most terrifying part.

Everyone is betting. Betting that Iran is just tough-talking, betting Israel won't really escalate, betting Trump's "bigger, better, stronger" is just Twitter roar.

But what if?

What if they really start fighting one day? Where can Bitcoin go?

Some say Bitcoin is digital gold, a safe haven.

Bullshit.

Look at this round. When geopolitical crises escalate, Bitcoin drops first. Safe haven? What kind of safe haven? Funds all rush into dollars and US bonds. Bitcoin is just a high-risk asset—don’t put gold on its face.

This rebound isn’t because Bitcoin is strong, but because oil prices fell, rate cut expectations returned, and funds came back to gamble.

It rises because there’s no war. Not because it can fight.

If you don’t even understand this, then losing money is really no surprise.

The market isn’t afraid of war, it’s afraid of you thinking you can predict war.

Every time you think, “This time is different,” it’s always the same old story.

Bitcoin hitting 72,000 isn’t because it’s awesome, but because the world isn’t collapsing for now. Whether the world collapses or not doesn’t depend on you, it depends on whether a few old men in military uniforms are in a good mood today.

What’s next? Speak plainly.

First, don’t chase the high.

Now the strait is closed, negotiations are set for April 11. Three days from now. Will Israel bomb again during these three days? Will Iran make more tough talk? Will Trump tweet in the middle of the night?

No one knows.

But what I do know is, anyone rushing in now is probably just setting up for the people who will buy the dip in three days.

Second, watch the oil price.

This rebound in Bitcoin is basically a correction caused by the oil price collapse. If oil prices spike back up, Bitcoin will be the first to kneel. Don’t believe in any “decoupling,” these two are still tightly linked.

Third, don’t over-allocate.

I already paid my tuition last night. Don’t make me pay again.

In this kind of market, it’s not your time to make money, it’s your time to watch the show.

Better to miss out than to get caught.

I just finished my last cigarette and looked at the K-line.

Bitcoin is still at 71,000.

The Iranians say, unless Israel stops bombing Lebanon, there will be no negotiations.

The Israelis say, keep fighting.

The White House says, the strait must open.

The Pentagon says, we are ready.

Everyone is talking.

But no one knows what will happen tomorrow.

This is the life of us crypto traders.

You stare at the K-line, thinking you’re battling the market. Actually, you’re battling the leaders of several countries, a few old men in military uniforms, and Trump’s late-night tweets.

The USDT in your hand isn’t worth more than some missiles.

So, control your position, hold your hand, stay alive.

See you on April 11.

If the negotiations collapse that day, we’ll meet on the rooftop, remember to bring cigarettes.