Let's first talk about the overall direction: this bear market hasn't finished yet.

According to historical patterns,
the true bottom usually occurs about a year and a half before the next halving.
This time, it's most likely around the end of this year.
Plus, on-chain data (like the cost basis still above $40k)
indicates that we're still early in the bottom phase; the bear market has only gone halfway.
So, those online claims that a small rise means a bull market is coming—
you can unfollow me now.
Our discussion level is different.
And then, regarding the medium-term trend,
it's the consolidation phase after our current second wave of downward trend.
Right now, BTC looks very strong,
but this strength is more fake than real.
It's essentially a short squeeze pushing the price up,
meaning there are too many traders shorting contracts, so it doesn't explode downward.