#周末我的交易计划 24 Hours to Decide the Fate? US-Iran Negotiations, Three Bottom Lines Non-Negotiable, The Global Markets Hold Their Breath!

Just now, the world's attention focused on the entrance of a hotel in Islamabad. Not chasing stars, not watching the spectacle. It’s about war and peace. On April 11, local time, Islamabad, Pakistan, Serena Hotel. The United States and Iran finally sat down at the same negotiation table. This day, more than 40 days have passed since the outbreak of hostilities. Just before the negotiations began, Trump made a statement that made the heart of the global capital markets tighten sharply: “The outcome will be clear within 24 hours.”
24 hours. War or peace? Continue fighting or shake hands and make peace? The global oil markets, stock markets, and currency markets are all waiting for this answer.
1. Sitting down for negotiations is itself not easy
Honestly, it’s not easy for these negotiations to even get started. Over 40 days of intense conflict, both sides have shown their fire. Iran’s missiles, the US aircraft carriers, clouds gathering over the Middle East. But note, the format of the negotiations is still uncertain—possibly face-to-face, or perhaps back-to-back, with messages relayed through intermediaries. Iran’s stance is very clear: talks are possible, but I haven’t lowered my knife. On the eve of the negotiations, Iran’s armed forces issued a statement: Given the US and Israel’s repeated breaches of trust, Iran’s armed forces remain on full alert and ready to engage at any time.
Translate: You negotiate your way, I prepare mine.
2. Major disagreements, so big they make your scalp tingle
So, what can be achieved by sitting down to talk? The disagreements are so huge they make your scalp tingle.
Iran has presented 10 ceasefire terms, the US has proposed 15 peace plans. The numbers alone reveal the problem—one wants 10 conditions, the other 15. How many overlap? The core game centers on three key points:
First, uranium enrichment rights. Iran says: I want to retain sovereignty over peaceful uranium enrichment. The US says: No way, not even a drop.
Second, the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says: I decide the navigation rules of the strait. The US says: Unconditionally open, no one can block.
Third, Lebanon. Iran says: Ceasefire must include Lebanon. The US says: Don’t even think about it. You see, this isn’t really negotiation; it’s two parallel lines. Iran’s speaker, Kalibaf, directly stated: Before negotiations, two conditions must be met—Lebanon ceasefire and the unfreezing of Iran’s frozen assets. The US’s conditions were also directly countered by Iran. Frankly, the likelihood of reaching a comprehensive agreement in this negotiation is currently low.
3. The market takes a breath, but just a breath
But for the global capital markets, just the words “sitting down to talk” are enough.
Why? Because over the past 40+ days, the markets have been tossed around enough. Oil prices soared, stocks fluctuated, safe-haven funds flooded into gold and the dollar. Now, there’s a ceasefire, negotiations are underway, and the market can finally breathe. But note, just breathe. Because negotiations could collapse, and hostilities could reignite. Iran’s missiles could fly again at any moment.
4. A detail worth everyone’s attention
However, in this crisis, there is one detail worth everyone’s attention: the RMB cross-border payment system—CIPS. By March 2026, CIPS’s daily transaction volume reached 920.5 billion yuan, a 12-month high. On April 2, the daily transaction volume surged to 1.22 trillion yuan, setting a new record. What does this number mean?
Simply put: more and more energy trade is settled in RMB. In the past, most of the oil and natural gas transactions in the Middle East were conducted in US dollars. This is the foundation of the dollar’s “petrodollar” hegemony. Now, this foundation is loosening. This US-Iran game, on the surface, is about Middle East war and peace; deep down, it’s about the undercurrents in the global currency landscape.
Conclusion: 24 hours, the world awaits an answer
Honestly, this negotiation cannot resolve all issues within 24 hours. Iran’s nuclear rights, control of the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon ceasefire—these are tough nuts that a single negotiation can’t crack. But within 24 hours, a direction can be seen. For the world, the US-Iran negotiation is a test of war and peace. And the answer to this test, in the next 24 hours, will reveal the first question. The whole world is waiting.
What do you think about this negotiation? Feel free to leave a comment in the discussion area.