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#周末我的交易计划 Is 24 Hours the Key to Determining Peace or War? U.S.-Iran Negotiations, Three Bottom Lines Non-Negotiable, Global Markets Hold Their Breath!
Just now, the world’s attention focused on the entrance of a hotel in Islamabad. Not to chase stars, not to watch the excitement. It’s about war and peace. On April 11th, local time, Islamabad, Pakistan, Serena Hotel. The U.S. and Iran finally sat down at the same negotiation table. This day, more than 40 days have passed since the outbreak of hostilities. Just before the negotiations began, Trump made a statement that made the heart of global capital markets tighten suddenly: “The outcome will be clear within 24 hours.” 24 hours. War or peace? Continue fighting or shake hands and make peace? The global oil markets, stock markets, and currency markets are all waiting for this answer.
1. Being able to sit down for negotiations is itself not easy
Honestly, just sitting down for these negotiations is not easy. Over 40 days of intense conflict, both sides have shown their fire. Iran’s missiles, the U.S. aircraft carriers, clouds over the Middle East. But note, the form of negotiations is still uncertain—could be “face-to-face,” or “back-to-back,” with messages relayed through the intermediary in Pakistan. Iran’s stance is very clear: talks are possible, but I haven’t put my knife down. On the eve of negotiations, Iran’s armed forces issued a statement: Given the repeated breaches of trust by the U.S. and Israel, Iran’s armed forces remain on full alert and ready

Grayscale’s latest clone-coin watchlist covers four major tracks and further concentrates in the list for Q2 2026, making it an important reference direction for institutional capital deployment.
· Public Chain/Contracts: TON, MNT, MON, TRX, CELO, CC (Grayscale kept these projects in its Q2 list and continues to favor diverse smart-contract platforms beyond Ethereum and Solana)
· DeFi: ENA, PENDLE, JUP, HYPE, KMNO, SYRUP, MORPHO (among which HYPE is drawing especially high attention due to Grayscale’s ETF filing)
· AI track: WLD, VIRTUAL, GRASS, ROBO, FLOCK, KAITO, KITE, VVV (the AI track expanded from 7 projects in Q1 to 10 in Q2, representing the biggest highlight of this round of list adjustments)
· Infrastructure: ZRO, W, HNT, GEOD, 2Z (focused on multi-chain connectivity, data, and decentralized networks)#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

#财神每日币圈资讯
#Gate广场四月发帖挑战
April 12
1. Bitcoin Market: After Bitcoin saw choppy gains and rose, it pulled back this morning; the high and closing price was $73,761, and it is currently trading at $73,030. Ethereum’s high was $2,329, and it is currently closing at $2,280.
2. Altcoin Market: Bitcoin is ranging and fluctuating at high levels. Major altcoins are mixed in terms of gains and losses. SOL is up slightly, closing at $84.7; DOGE is down slightly, closing at $0.09292. Other altcoins show signs of recovery: AIOT is up 176%, closing at $0.089; ARIA is up 25%, closing at $0.769; SKYAI is up 54%, closing at $0.1115; RAVE is up 35%, closing at $2.14; BULLA is down 35%, leading the market decline.
3. News in Brief: The third round of talks between Iran and the U.S. in Islamabad has ended. Iran says this round of talks is the “last chance” to reach a framework agreement. Since the 11th, both sides’ negotiation agenda has been packed and consultations have continued into the deep night. All parties are racing to seize the window of a temporary ceasefire to intensify their game. However, differences remain stark on three core issues: management of the Strait of Hormuz, the thawing of overseas assets, and uranium enrichment. Today, the two sides will hold a fourth round of talks.
4. Crypto News: Hong Kong has issued its first batch of stablecoin licenses. Dingdian Financial Technology and Hong Kong Shanghai HSBC are the two companies that “won the bid.” Among them, Dingdian Financial Technology is jointly established by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Telecom, and Anyi Group.
5. Crypto News: Strategy added 3,447 Bitcoin via STRC holdings.
6. Crypto News: Wintermute policy chief: The Clarity Act’s pass rate this year is only 30%.
7. Crypto News: The Director of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency supports the CLARITY Act, saying that a clear regulatory framework is crucial for maintaining the United States’ leadership in financial innovation.
8. Crypto News: The host of the All-In Podcast once again “gave out red envelopes” to the Bittensor subnet project, claiming the project achieved 80% of Claude4’s capabilities within 45 days.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran: War slows down abruptly, negotiations face a life-and-death dilemma, global markets迎来 a critical turning point!
On April 12th, local time, after mediation by Pakistan, the third round of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded, with Iran stating this was the last chance to reach a framework agreement. The two-week ceasefire window is nearing its end, with sharp disagreements on three core issues, diplomatic games and military pressure intensifying simultaneously. The Middle East stands at the crossroads of war and peace, and global capital markets are holding their breath.
1. From war to ceasefire: the pragmatic logic of forced compromise
The US-Iran ceasefire this time is not out of goodwill, but a pragmatic retreat amid high war costs and failed objectives.
- US: Over a month of fighting, 13 soldiers killed, daily costs exceeding $1 billion, ammunition rapidly depleted. Failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, and did not open the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic anti-war voices are rising, cracks appear within the Republican Party, and Trump urgently needs a “diplomatic victory” to mitigate electoral losses.
- Iran: Subjected to multiple airstrikes, high-level attacks, economic and livelihood pressures, but still controls the Strait, retains half of its arsenal, and refuses to submit to the US. The ceasefire aims to breathe, seek sanctions relief, asset thawing, and stabilize the regime and regional position.
2. Core contradictions: three deadlocks, two weeks unlikely to break
At the negotiation table, both sides’ demands are worlds apart, with three major issues refusing to budge:
1. Strait of Hormuz: US demands Iran fully open and international co-management; Iran insists on sovereignty control, negotiable transit rules, and refuses to abandon the strategic chokepoint.
2. Asset thawing abroad: Iran demands full unfreezing of frozen assets; the White House directly denies related commitments, only willing limited relaxations with harsh conditions.
3. Uranium enrichment: US demands Iran reduce to 3.67% and undergo comprehensive inspections; Iran refuses to give up nuclear capability, only willing limited concessions, and rejects linking missile and regional issues.
3. Both sides’ chips: hard power and vulnerabilities
- US chips: military superiority, global sanctions, cooperation with Israel, dollar hegemony;
Vulnerabilities: domestic anti-war sentiment, election pressures, allied disunity, high oil prices dragging down the economy.
- Iran chips: control of the Strait (20%-30% of global oil transit), missile and drone stockpiles, regional proxy networks, resistance will;
Vulnerabilities: economic sanctions, livelihood hardships, military losses.
4. Outlook prediction: three possible directions, many uncertainties
- Optimistic (40%): Achieve a temporary framework, extend ceasefire, Iran limits uranium enrichment, some assets unfreezed, Strait opened, negotiations continue.
- Neutral (45%): Maintain ceasefire, defer disagreements, establish working groups, limited Strait opening, prolong negotiations.
- Pessimistic (15%): Negotiations break down, fighting reignites, US targets infrastructure, Iran attacks Middle Eastern energy facilities, oil prices surge to $200/barrel.
The biggest variable: Israel. Netanyahu says he will continue striking Iran’s proxies or stir trouble through Lebanon conflicts, undermining ceasefire and negotiations, and consolidating domestic hardline support. Additionally, strong domestic hardline factions in the US and Iran oppose each other, with zero mutual trust—both are ticking time bombs.
5. Impact on global and Chinese markets
- Global capital markets—
Crude oil: smooth negotiations could bring prices back to $80-90; if negotiations break, prices could spike above $150, triggering stagflation risks.
- Stock markets: easing tensions may boost tech and consumer sectors; deterioration could cause global crashes, with military and energy sectors outperforming against the trend.
- Gold/USD: risk aversion rising boosts gold prices and strengthens the dollar; easing tensions weakens the dollar and causes gold to fluctuate.
- Tomorrow’s A-share trend—overall: risk appetite recovers, major indices oscillate upward, ChiNext more elastic.
- Beneficiary sectors: technology (AI, computing power), aerospace and shipping, mid- and downstream chemicals, consumer goods.
- Under pressure sectors: oil and gas, coal, military industry (risk aversion wanes).
- Risks: if negotiations suddenly turn sour, A-shares will quickly retreat, and safe-haven sectors will rise again.
A two-week ceasefire is a breathing space, not a final resolution. The essence of US-Iran negotiations is a “dignified ceasefire” game. Core disagreements are hard to resolve, and variables like Israel are brewing. The probability of reaching a comprehensive agreement within two weeks is extremely low; the most likely scenario is an extension of the ceasefire and postponement of disputes.
For markets, short-term focus on negotiation news pulses, medium-term on Strait navigation and sanctions easing. Investors should beware of black swans, control positions, buy on dips in growth and consumption sectors, and keep safe-haven sectors as hedges.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战
Breaking news! HSBC and Standard Chartered obtain stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong
As expected by the market, Hong Kong authorities still prefer traditional banks with stronger financial strength and more extensive experience to hold licenses, and there was no surprise that the much-anticipated third license was not granted. The joint applications from O*SL and Standard Chartered + Animoca Brands + Hong Kong Telecom‌ were all unsuccessful, indicating that Hong Kong authorities have become very cautious about the operation of stablecoins. This marks a significant change from the previously proactive and bold innovative impression, possibly related to mainland China's strict regulatory stance on digital currencies, similar to what Zhou Xiaochuan previously said: “Dollar stablecoins or supporting dollarization can have many side effects on the economy,” which indirectly reflects mainland China's view of stablecoins. It now seems that even Hong Kong, once considered a “dream country for stablecoins,” no longer holds that hope. Digital currencies in China are truly facing great difficulties!

The crypto market, after a prolonged correction, has once again exhibited a key signal repeatedly validated by historical data. On-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant's data shows that Bitcoin's long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen below the critical threshold of 1. This indicates that those "diamond hands" who are least sensitive to short-term fluctuations are selling their Bitcoin at a loss. This phenomenon is widely interpreted by the market as a "capitulation" behavior, often signaling that the momentum for large-scale selling is waning, and the market may be approaching or already at a bottom.
Why is the behavior of long-term holders considered the "ballast" of the market?
Long-term holders (typically addresses holding Bitcoin for over 155 days) are the most steadfast group in the market. They react far less to short-term price fluctuations, news events, and macro sentiment.

The Solana Foundation launches a dual security program with STRIDE and SIRN, upgrading the full DeFi security framework—from protocol evaluation and proactive monitoring to emergency response.

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

Strategy In Q1, bought 89,599 BTC, while Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $500 million in outflows year over year, marking a historic divergence in capital between the two types of institutions.

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#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Bitcoin ETF Fee War Enters Its Second Season: This Time, The Weapon Is Not Fees, But Returns!
Morgan Stanley's MSBT has launched. On the first day, $34M experienced a net capital inflow. The fee rate is 0.14%, which is 11 basis points lower than BlackRock's IBIT. This is not an accident; it’s a carefully planned opening move in a price war. But the fee war is only the first season’s script. Now, competition among Bitcoin ETFs is entering the second season — the weapon has shifted from fees to product design. Wall Street’s financial district, Bitcoin ETF competition is entering an institutional game era.
    01     Season One: The Fee War Is Over, The Outcome Is Decided
Before Morgan Stanley entered, the fee competition landscape for Bitcoin ETFs was relatively stable:
BlackRock IBIT: 0.25%
Grayscale BTC Trust: 0.15%
ARK 21Shares ARKB: 0.21%
MSBT directly lowered the price to 0.14%, lower than all major competitors. This is Morgan Stanley’s strategy: enter with a low price, rely on its own Wall Street client network and broker channels, without needing product differentiation, just “cheaper.”
Data from the second day also confirmed this logic: FBTC saw inflows of $53.3 million, and MSBT itself attracted $14.9 million. Large inflows into the two biggest Bitcoin ETFs on the same day indicate that funds are not just flowing from IBIT to MSBT but are new incremental capital entering the market. This is exactly what Morgan Stanley wants: among its clients, there are many who have never been exposed to Bitcoin ETFs.
       02   BlackRock’s Response: No Longer Competing on Fees, But on Product Innovation
If you can’t win the fee war, change the track. On April 1, BlackRock submitted a revised registration statement to the SEC for the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, code: $BITA . The logic of this fund is different from all existing Bitcoin ETFs. It’s not just “holding Bitcoin and appreciating.” It involves holding IBIT exposure while selling covered call options, collecting option premiums as part of the fund’s income distributed to holders.
The structure is as follows:
Assets: Bitcoin + IBIT shares + cash
Income source: premiums earned from selling options related to IBIT
Risk: limited upside — if Bitcoin surges beyond the strike price, the gains go to the option counterparty
In other words: holding this ETF means not only waiting for Bitcoin to rise but also collecting option premiums simultaneously.
       03   What Does This Mean: Bitcoin ETFs Are Turning Into “Income Products”
The emergence of $BITA marks a fundamental shift in the positioning of Bitcoin ETFs—from “buy and hold Bitcoin exposure” to “hold Bitcoin exposure while earning income.” For institutions, this product has additional appeal: option premium income can partially hedge against Bitcoin price declines. For high-net-worth individuals and family offices, covered call strategies are already a classic income approach, now available in ETF form. This is not a new invention — it’s a migration of decades-old traditional financial income strategies into Bitcoin assets. Bitcoin + options income, a classic income strategy now being ETF-ized.
       04   An Overlooked Data Point: BTC Fell 20%, Yet ETFs Are Still Attracting Capital
To clarify the background: Bitcoin dropped from its 2026 high of $97,000 to about $72,100, a decline of over 20%. During the same period, in March, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net inflow of $1.32 billion — the first monthly net inflow since 2026, and the first since October last year. Price drops, but inflows turn positive. This indicates that demand for Bitcoin ETFs is not “chasing the rally.” Price declines actually present a better entry point for ETF investors—they are holding long-term Bitcoin exposure, not trading short-term. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock are competing for this group of “long-term allocators who don’t try to time the market.” The capital flow chart shows that during BTC’s decline, ETFs continued to attract capital against the trend, with institutional funds steadily entering.
       05   The Season’s Competition Is Essentially a Logic Battle Between Two Types of Institutions
Morgan Stanley’s logic: My clients haven’t bought Bitcoin yet, so I’ll introduce them first, using the lowest fee as a gateway. BlackRock’s logic: My clients are already in IBIT, so I’ll offer them a “plus one layer of income” product to keep them engaged. One is for customer acquisition, the other for retention. Both routes can scale. Which path is faster depends on whether ETF options markets can keep up with the demand — a key variable is the development of IBIT options markets. Nasdaq is already pushing to remove position limits on crypto ETF options trading; if approved, liquidity for IBIT options will rise rapidly, and $BITA ’s income strategies can truly take off.
       06   The Endgame of the Fee War Is Not Price, But Product Matrix
Today, the dimension of Bitcoin ETF competition has shifted.
Season One: Who’s cheaper.
Season Two: Who can make holders earn more. After pushing fees to the floor, institutions are no longer thinking about “how to reduce holding costs,” but “how to generate returns from holding.”
BITA is just the first shot. Next will come income products based on ETH exposure, Solana exposure — as long as options markets can keep pace, this trend will continue. The endpoint of Bitcoin ETFs is not to become a “lower-cost Bitcoin holding method,” but to evolve into a “yield-generating crypto asset class.”
This article does not constitute any investment advice. All data sources are from public market information and SEC regulatory filings.

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