The global macroeconomic landscape is undergoing a profound restructuring. The Chief Investment Officer of Bank of America (BofA) Michael Hartnett believes that the winners of the first half of the 2020s were stocks, but in the second half of the decade, commodity goods will become the market driver instead of American stocks and the US dollar.

In his recent Flow Show report, Hartnett notes that the current rotation is shaped by six structural shifts: from globalization to nationalism, from efficiency to well-being as a priority, the Fed’s transition from independence to obedience, strict control instead of open US borders, the AI arms race shifting into a destabilization phase, a reorientation from the service sector to manufacturing as the main trend, and a weakening dollar amid widespread fiscal overspending. In such an environment, commodity goods are becoming a tool for hedging both risk and inflation in investors’ portfolios.

Recent market forecasts by Hartnett have been reaffirmed — his sell signals precisely indicated local peaks of the S&P 500, and then — he almost guessed the market bottom. Currently, he describes market sentiment as a shift from “sell on the rise” to “May’s highs” and expects another record inflow of funds into stocks in 2026.