1. Current Market Status: Panic-Driven Decline Dominated by Geopolitical Risks

On April 13, the cryptocurrency market declined collectively again. Influenced by news of the U.S. military blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $70,500 during the day, and as of press time, it was approximately $70,600. Mainstream cryptocurrencies came under pressure, with ETH and SOL dropping over 4% within 24 hours, and DOGE, XRP, and others also declining.

In the past 24 hours, over 146k global liquidations occurred, totaling $281 million, with long positions accounting for $202 million. The fear and greed index remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone, and retail investor sentiment has fallen to a historic low.

---

2. Core Divergence: Market Panic vs. Ecosystem Development

The most noteworthy phenomenon in the current market is the growing disconnect between secondary market sentiment and project ecosystem development. Many analysts point out that although prices remain under pressure, the fundamentals of core projects have not worsened—in fact, they are steadily progressing. This divergence may represent the largest accumulation window of disagreement.

Over the past year, Morpho borrowers have paid approximately $170 million in interest, with DAO annual revenue around $17 million, corresponding to a $1.7 billion valuation, and a price-to-sales ratio of about 100:1. In comparison, Aave’s annual revenue is about $140 million, with a $1.5 billion valuation, and a P/S ratio of roughly 11:1. This indicates that Morpho’s valuation includes strong growth expectations, but also that digesting its revenue multiples will take more time.

Regarding Aave, venture capital firms (Blockchain Capital, ParaFi, etc.) have sold off amid the bear market, causing AAVE to decline significantly recently. However, on the fundamentals side, the DAO just passed the "Aave Will Win" proposal, allocating $25 million to Aave Labs. Founder Stani called it "the most important proposal in Aave history," marking the end of an era where governance was paid for. Aave V4 deposits have surpassed $10 million, with total value locked (TVL) maintained around $25.3 billion.

Pendle is currently trading at about $1.07, down roughly 86% from its April 2024 high, with TVL dropping from a peak of $13.4 billion to about $1.96 billion. However, the team has launched a tokenomics reform for sPENDLE, with up to 80% of protocol revenue used for buybacks and distribution to stakers, while emissions are reduced by 20-30%. Given its dominant position in the sector (market share over 95%), if interest rate markets re-activate, the current risk-reward ratio of 1:4 could be attractive.

SUSHI is trading at about $0.20, 99% below its all-time high, with TVL falling to around $38-48 million. But the new team has taken control of the protocol, with product suites covering cross-chain swaps, centralized liquidity, limit orders, and new modules like Wara and Susa—whether execution can meet expectations remains to be seen.

---

3. Macro Catalysts: Two Key Variables

Geopolitics is the biggest current variable. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global oil transportation. If a blockade is implemented, risk assets will generally come under pressure. However, studies show that within 60 days after major global shocks, Bitcoin’s performance consistently outperforms gold and the S&P 500. If signs of easing in peace negotiations emerge, the crypto market could lead a rebound.

The CLARITY Act officially enters a critical legislative window today. If passed, 16 mainstream assets including BTC and ETH will be explicitly classified as "commodities" under CFTC regulation, removing them from SEC jurisdiction. This could be the most significant watershed in U.S. crypto regulation history.

---

4. Overall Outlook

The market is currently in a window where geopolitical risk pricing and regulatory optimism are pulling in opposite directions. In the short term, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz dominates sentiment. Technically, BTC needs to hold the $70,000–$70,500 support zone; otherwise, it could further decline to $66,000–$68,000. ETH faces a key support at $2,138.

Notably, institutional behavior is completely opposite to retail investors—Q1 2026 saw institutions net accumulate 69,000 BTC, while retail investors net sold 62,000 BTC. Institutions continue to accumulate in extreme fear zones, while retail investors exit in panic. The divergence between market structure and ecosystem development may be building momentum for a rebound in the next phase.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战