The Strait Blockade Panic is Forcing Trump to Concede, and These Major Safe-Haven Assets Will Experience a Violent Revaluation

It is still too early to assert that the new trend in the foreign exchange market (going long on non-dollar currencies, shorting the dollar) will be sustainable. So far, the declines in the stock market, yields, and forex markets have been significant but not decisive. As we wrote on Friday, we have indeed sensed anti-American and anti-dollar sentiment. Just look at how quickly traders sold off the dollar when the ceasefire agreement was announced. We will stick to the current trend that is still forming but remain somewhat skeptical.
Various traders seem to believe that we will not return to a state of total war with no negotiations in sight. But no one rules out the possibility of initiating a new round of negotiations, nor has anyone said that the ceasefire is over. There is still a glimmer of hope that a tough “escalation” strategy will bring Iran back to the negotiating table to ease tensions.
Although experts on cable TV have been discussing loudly all weekend, we dare not claim to understand the mindset of the Iranians, but we suspect they are somewhat like the Russians, capable of enduring economic pain beyond our imagination in the name of ideology. Blocking the Strait cuts off Iran’s oil exports and will bring ongoing, unknown-duration suffering before they surrender. In fact, Iran’s wise stance should be to return to the negotiating table immediately, but economic prudence is not their style.
We speculate that in this cowardly game, Trump will be the first to back down. Perhaps Pakistan can continue dialogue and make some progress. On the other hand, maybe Trump thinks that blocking Venezuela is no different from taking similar action in the Strait, despite the huge differences in scale and global importance. He is quite foolish in many things. So, the question is, how much will the stock indexes have to fall to make him lose his mind?
(The above content is from Barbara Rockefeller’s viewpoint on April 13, for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.)#Gate广场四月发帖挑战