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1. Intraday Trading Discipline: Systematic decision-making, mechanical execution
1. Do not place orders lightly at support and resistance levels on small timeframes; observe how the price reacts at these levels (e.g., sign

The Strait Blockade Panic is Forcing Trump to Concede, and These Major Safe-Haven Assets Will Experience a Violent Revaluation
It is still too early to assert that the new trend in the foreign exchange market (going long on non-dollar currencies, shorting the dollar) will be sustainable. So far, the declines in the stock market, yields, and forex markets have been significant but not decisive. As we wrote on Friday, we have indeed sensed anti-American and anti-dollar sentiment. Just look at how quickly traders sold off the dollar when the ceasefire agreement was announced. We will stick to t

Wosh’s Challenge: The Federal Reserve Power Transition Amid a Resurgence of Inflation
1. The Fed’s Leadership Change Meets an Inflation Rebound: The Rate Cut Promise Faces Tests
At the start of the year, markets generally expected the Fed to begin a rate-cut cycle in 2026, but this premise is unraveling. The direct cause is the rapid rise in energy prices—international oil prices have climbed to about $100 per barrel, pushing the U.S. overall inflation rate to 3.3% in March. More importantly, the transmission effects of energy prices will spread over the coming months to a wider range of goods

Iran may charge transit fees on the Strait, and in effect tax global shipping—an unrealistic idea; and if deterrence breaks down, it would be catastrophic...
Regarding the content of Trump's ten-point proposal that he calls “feasible” for Iran, the situation remains murky. But one point is very clear: Iran will tax cargo oil tankers passing through the Strait. According to the British Financial Times, the specific details (for example, Bitcoin equivalent to $1 per barrel) will be finalized before negotiations in Islamabad begin on April 10. In reality, this Hormuz Strait rent replaces Iran’s

Ceasefire agreement faces uncertainty; if weekend negotiations are canceled, risk sentiment will be suppressed
Optimism about the ceasefire faded on Thursday as news from Iran turned negative. Global stock markets stalled, and oil prices rose. Brent crude oil topped $97 per barrel this morning, triggering a slight sell-off in European bonds at the start of trading hours. European stock markets are giving back some of Wednesday’s gains, and market sentiment is clearly no longer as bullish as before.
Although volatility remains stable, traders are cautious about the continued passage of oil

The Strait of Hormuz "reopens and closes again," with oil prices swinging between hope and fear
International crude oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Wednesday, driven by market reassessment of the Middle East situation following recent ceasefire. Brent crude and WTI crude are trading above $98.70 and $96.70 respectively, with price volatility intense due to market doubts about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement.
Although the ceasefire temporarily eased initial concerns about global supply disruptions, ongoing attacks and logistical issues still make traders cautious. Th

Historically, central banks often lean toward more hawkish policy within the first one to three months after an oil crisis, in order to deal with short-term inflation shocks. However, as the impact on economic growth becomes increasingly evident, policy expectations begin to shift, and interest rates typically fall around six to nine months after the crisis, because downside risks to economic activity start to dominate. The current market environment reflects the dynamics of this early stage.

Therefore, for the market, the key issue is not only how high oil prices can rise, but also how long

The Iran situation is only a short-term boost for the dollar; once geopolitical risks subside, a reversal to a downward trend is likely.
Supported by inflation concerns triggered by the Iran war, the dollar remains close to its year-high reached in March. Recent data shows that the U.S. economy remains resilient, which also supports the dollar.
Currently, inflation remains sticky, and the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates significantly. This is favorable for the dollar but ultimately only a short-term driver. From a broader structural perspective, once the geopolitical pr

The United States has only one path left: money printing!
Will gold inevitably reach new highs again?
U.S. national debt has hit a historic milestone of $39 trillion and continues to grow at an astonishing rate. James Lavish, a seasoned macro investor and fund manager with decades of global market navigation experience, points directly to the core issue: the current market uncertainty is unprecedented.
“Honestly, this is one of the most difficult markets I’ve ever invested in,” Lavish admitted. “I’ve experienced many so-called once-in-a-century events: the collapse of Long-Term Capital Managem

Spot gold has found some support, and investors seem to be convinced...
On Monday, spot gold in Asian trading hovered around the $4,600 mark and rebounded, but subsequent buying interest was weak. Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire, which could lead to an end to fighting. This news suppressed safe-haven demand for the dollar, providing some support for gold prices.
The outlook for rising global interest rates limits the upside potential for non-yielding gold. Investors seem to be convinced that the war-driven s

The market is trying to price an nonexistent endgame; volatility is coming but not today — three key points to watch for today’s crude oil:
1. Market Review: Last Friday, due to Good Friday, the US, multiple European countries, Australia, and Hong Kong stock exchanges were closed for the day. The CME Group’s precious metals, US crude oil, forex, and stock index futures contracts, as well as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude futures, were all suspended for the entire day.
2. Key Indicators: Recently, Trump has chosen to extend the critical negotiation window in talks with Iran rather