Losing energy taxes, the Iranian regime faces a survival crisis, with the risks of oil price spikes and ongoing war still present

The core of the current situation lies in whether the U.S. blockade of the strait is truly more damaging to the Iranian regime than it is to the global economy. After thousands of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, Iran's economy has become extremely fragile. If it loses oil exports and transit fee income during a ceasefire, the financial costs to maintain the status quo will grow exponentially. However, a full blockade is legally equivalent to declaring war, and the U.S. cannot unilaterally force the reopening of the strait.

This blockade game significantly increases the strategic value of preventing Houthi involvement. If U.S. military blockade provokes a challenge, the Houthis might block the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, paralyzing Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port exports and further driving up oil prices. At the same time, this makes Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy facilities highly sensitive, and the world’s reliance on alternative sources like Russian oil will compel the West to tighten restrictions on Ukraine, demanding it cease harassment of Russian export facilities in the Baltic and Black Seas.

Although U.S. oil exports are expected to surge to 5.2 million barrels per day in April (far above March’s 3.9 million barrels per day), this increase can only offset part of the shortfall and cannot resolve the physical deadlock of the strait. Energy disruptions are continuously eroding the diplomatic window of opportunity, leaving the Trump administration little room for long-term negotiations. For Iran, losing the “energy tax” means the regime faces a survival crisis. If substantive breakthroughs are not achieved diplomatically, the continued closure of the strait will push oil prices into a nonlinear upward trajectory, bringing catastrophic pressure to the global economy. Although all parties have incentives to avoid full-scale war, given the rigid positions of the U.S. and Iran and the tense military standoff, the path to sustained conflict remains open.
(The above views are from a research report by Nordea Bank in Sweden on April 13, for reference only)
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