April 15 Evening Analysis of the Second Bitcoin:

【Core Warning】
Clear high-risk signals have appeared in the market! The 1-hour/4-hour dual-cycle MACD shows synchronized top divergence and death cross confirmation pattern. After the price surged to a new high in the phase, the MACD green histogram momentum sharply contracted and turned red, indicating that the bulls' strength is completely exhausted, and technical pullback risk has been fully released. Currently, the price is weakly following Bitcoin's movement, and the short-term shift from strength to weakness has been completed. The main strategy is adjusted to short positions at high levels to play the pullback, with support levels for low-position rebounds. Blindly chasing highs is strictly prohibited!
✅ High Short (Main strategy: dual-cycle death cross hedging)
Entry 1 (Trend-following short): 2360 - 2380 range
• Logic: Relying on the 1-hour Bollinger upper band + the previous high below 2416 as double resistance, combined with the 1-hour/4-hour MACD death cross signal, enter short directly to target the space for Bitcoin's correction.
• Stop loss: Above 2400 (only if the price stabilizes firmly at this level, indicating the death cross is a false signal).
• Target: 2320 (1-hour Bollinger middle band) → 2290 (previous trading cluster + short-term support)
Entry 2 (Rebound short): 2390 - 2410 range
• Logic: If the market's brief rebound is weak and the price oscillates below the 4-hour Bollinger upper band with pressure, it continues the bearish momentum linked to Bitcoin.
• Stop loss: Above 2430.
• Target: 2330 → 2285
✅ Low Long (Auxiliary strategy: oversold bargain hunting)
Entry 1 (Precise support buy): 2285 - 2300 range
• Logic: This range is the 1-hour Bollinger lower band + previous consolidation center double support, also the core defensive line of the bullish trend. After a pullback stabilizes here, reverse to go long.
• Stop loss: Below 2260 (a break indicates the 1-hour bullish trend is thoroughly broken).
• Target: 2340 → 2380
Entry 2 (Secondary confirmation of low long): 2250 - 2270 range
• Logic: After extreme oversold conditions, the rebound buy needs to wait for bullish engulfing or volume-confirmed bullish candlestick signals before entering.
• Stop loss: Below 2230.
• Target: 2320 → 2360
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