The reopening and closing of the strait indicate that Trump's "victory narrative" is not important; what truly matters is...


Iran issued a statement saying that because the (U.S. maritime) blockade of Iran is still ongoing, the U.S. "has not fulfilled its obligations." In response, the Iranian military has resumed control of the strait, and any ships wishing to pass must once again obtain Iran's approval. In fact, this means returning to the previous situation, where the strait is effectively closed. Earlier shipping data showed a slight increase in activity along the strait. But clearly, Iran has not truly "reopened" the strait, as many ships trying to pass are still being turned back.
Now, with the latest statement from the Iranian military, I guess most ships will return to the port, and the volume of passage along the strait will drop back to nearly zero. All of this feels like an absurd dream— the brief "reopening" lasted less than a day, and now we are back to square one. At this point, Iran's actual actions in the Strait of Hormuz are the most important. The political noise and statements, especially from the U.S. camp, are not that significant. Trump always wants to create a sense of victory by frequently issuing positive statements, but as repeatedly mentioned last week, shipping data does not lie. Politicians can make up all kinds of claims about the situation, but if there is no real shipping activity through the strait, global oil and gas supplies will tighten further, and spot prices will continue to rise.
The oil futures contracts held by investors might give the impression that the war is over. But if you step outside, you'll notice that everything around you might soon see price increases, and some of these increases have already begun. This will be a big problem for many economies, especially as the longer this situation drags on, the worse the problem will become.
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