Huaxi Securities' 2024 Investment Strategy Conference was held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province from February 29 to March 1. At the investment strategy meeting, the chief analysts of Huaxi Securities Research Institute predicted the economic trend in 2024, and their core view is that the future is bright and promising. Sun Fu, chief macro analyst of Huaxi Securities Research Institute, believes that 2024 will be a year when external pressure will slow down and internal energy will gain momentum. Overseas, the US economy will remain resilient in 2024, the European economy will pick up, favourable information for China's exports, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of the year. Domestically, China's economic growth is expected to return to the trend of steady state in 2024, and the annual GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%. At the same time, he believes that considering price factors, nominal GDP growth is expected to pick up quarter by quarter, which is conducive to the improvement of corporate earnings expectations. In terms of finance, it will be moderately strengthened to improve quality and efficiency. It is estimated that the deficit rate in 2024 will be about 3%, and the deficit scale will be about 4 trillion yuan, or 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be added, and about 4 trillion yuan of local special bonds will be added. In terms of monetary policy, after the RRR cut and LPR reduction were realized, the follow-up structural tools continued to maintain their strength. Based on the economic fundamentals at home and abroad, Sun Fu looked forward to the major types of assets in 2024: US bond intrerest rates remain relatively high, the US dollar remains relatively strong, commodities are generally flat, RMB pressure eases, and domestic assets are "better than debt".
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Huaxi Securities' 2024 Investment Strategy Conference was held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province from February 29 to March 1. At the investment strategy meeting, the chief analysts of Huaxi Securities Research Institute predicted the economic trend in 2024, and their core view is that the future is bright and promising. Sun Fu, chief macro analyst of Huaxi Securities Research Institute, believes that 2024 will be a year when external pressure will slow down and internal energy will gain momentum. Overseas, the US economy will remain resilient in 2024, the European economy will pick up, favourable information for China's exports, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of the year. Domestically, China's economic growth is expected to return to the trend of steady state in 2024, and the annual GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%. At the same time, he believes that considering price factors, nominal GDP growth is expected to pick up quarter by quarter, which is conducive to the improvement of corporate earnings expectations. In terms of finance, it will be moderately strengthened to improve quality and efficiency. It is estimated that the deficit rate in 2024 will be about 3%, and the deficit scale will be about 4 trillion yuan, or 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be added, and about 4 trillion yuan of local special bonds will be added. In terms of monetary policy, after the RRR cut and LPR reduction were realized, the follow-up structural tools continued to maintain their strength. Based on the economic fundamentals at home and abroad, Sun Fu looked forward to the major types of assets in 2024: US bond intrerest rates remain relatively high, the US dollar remains relatively strong, commodities are generally flat, RMB pressure eases, and domestic assets are "better than debt".