#CPI数据公布，看涨还是看跌？ On August 15th, Jinshi Data reported that according to CICC research, looking ahead, we believe that the restraint of the US short-term and long-term Interest Rate on the economy has been realized. It is not ruled out that economic data such as CPI may further weaken due to base effects and economic moderation, thereby pushing the 10-year US Treasury Interest Rate down to around 3.7%. We estimate that the US deficit in the third quarter of this year is approximately $631.7 billion, compared to $509.9 billion, $554.7 billion, and $208.5 billion in the previous three quarters. With the reinvigoration of US fiscal policy, we estimate that the resilience of the US economy itself may be rekindled, and the probability of a recession is low. Therefore, we believe that the opening of interest rate cuts may become a turning point in the trend of Interest Rate. After the interest rate cut, in the absence of a recession benchmark scenario, the resilience of the fundamentals is expected to push the 10-year Interest Rate up to 4.2%, with a steep bull steep curve (interest rate cut) and a steep bear steep curve (economic restart). #币圈观察员