The Truth Behind the Fed's Halt on Balance Sheet Reduction: Technical Adjustment or Prelude to a Liquidity Surge?
Fact-check: The policy is true, but "complete suspension" is an exaggerated interpretation.
On October 30, 2025, the Fed officially announced the end of the reduction in the holdings of government bonds starting from December 1. This policy adjustment is true, but it is not what users refer to as "the balance sheet reduction is fully paused from now on". The real situation is:
• Treasury portion: Stop rolling over up to $50 billion of maturing debt each month and stabilize the

The Truth Behind BTC's Big Dump: Arbitrage Trading Reversal and the "Davis Double-Click" of Expected Overdraft
As the Asian market opened, it immediately fell, with Bitcoin teetering before the technical support level of $91,200. This decline is by no means a mere emotional outburst, but rather a structural adjustment triggered by a turning point in macro liquidity. Although the user's mention of "Powell's resignation" is completely false news, the two major factors of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations and the Federal Reserve's policy expectations are form

Behind the 87.4% probability of interest rate cuts: the crypto market is experiencing a "expectation exhaustion" crisis.
When the CME "FedWatch" pushed the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to 87.4%, the market no longer faced the suspense of "whether to cut or not," but rather the harsh test of "what happens after the cut." This figure was refreshed on the morning of December 1, 2025, seemingly rolling out the red carpet for risk assets, but in reality, it may have already overdrawn the benefits to a dangerous edge.
The data itself is real: the probability of the Federal Re

Institutional capital "position shifting" undercurrents: The real game behind the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF
When BlackRock "gives way", the market bottom may truly be established.
On November 28, 2025, after several weeks of blood loss, the Bitcoin spot ETF market suddenly experienced a net inflow of $71.37 million. This was not just a simple return of the prodigal son, but a "institutional shift" initiated by ARK Invest and Fidelity—on that day, ARKB attracted $88.04 million, while FBTC harvested $77.45 million; however, the industry giant BlackRock's IBIT unusually saw a net outflow of $

The institutional singularity of the crypto market: when BlackRock becomes a "Whale"
From the rumor of "10-minute shopping" to see the restructuring of the market.
Recently, the news that "BlackRock bought 300 BTC and 16,000 ETH from Coinbase in 10 minutes" has caused a stir in the crypto community. Although the accuracy of this data remains to be verified (a large transfer does not equate to an immediate purchase, and is more likely a stock adjustment for ETF subscriptions and redemptions), the trend revealed behind it is real and profound: the crypto market is undergoing a paradigm shift fro

Transfer of Gold Pricing Power: When the Interest Rate Cut Cycle Encounters a Demand Structure Revolution
Behind the continuous record high prices of gold, a deep transformation in pricing logic is taking place. According to the latest assessment by CITIC Securities, the core driving force for gold prices to break historical highs by 2025 has quietly shifted from the traditional "dollar-interest rate" single anchor to a diversified game model dominated by marginal demand. This change not only explains why gold prices can rise against the trend when real interest rates are high but also reveals

The Truth Behind the "Resignation" Rumors of Powell: Market Game in the Fog of Information
Why an unverified message has caused a stir
Regarding the rumors of "Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's sudden resignation after the emergency meeting at the end of the year," after verifying with multiple sources, there is currently no official channel to confirm this news. Authoritative financial media such as Reuters and Bloomberg have not published related reports, and neither the Federal Reserve's official website nor Powell himself has made any statements. The dissemination of this informati

3000 USD Level: The Underlying Computing Power Currents Behind the ETH Bull vs Bear Battle
The War on the Order Book: The Gold Content of $3000
The current ETH market is undergoing a silent struggle. The accumulation of $150 million sell orders at the $3000 level is not merely a simple sell-off but forms a crucial psychological and technical double defense line. It is worth noting that the support zone between 2940 and 2990 has gathered over $500 million in potential buy orders—this is not a scattered force of retail investors but a gathering area for algorithmic trading and institutional posi

The evolution of the cryptocurrency market landscape under the accelerated layout of institutional capital and the reconstruction of retail strategies.
Recently, the intensive actions of traditional financial giants in the digital asset field are profoundly rewriting the underlying operational logic of the cryptocurrency market. BlackRock has increased its holdings by 300 bitcoins and 16,000 ethers through the Coinbase platform in a very short time, with a total investment of up to $600 million over three days. This pace of operation and the volume of funds have far exceeded the scope of conve

Analysis of the Structural Impact of the Decline in Michigan Consumer Confidence Index on the Cryptocurrency Market
In November 2024, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly fell to 50.3, the lowest level since May 2023, while inflation expectations rose against the trend. This data triggered significant fluctuations in global financial markets, with the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December adjusting from 70% to 66.6%. This article aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of this macroeconomic indicator on the encryption asset market

Professional analysis of rollover strategies in Crypto Assets Futures Trading.
In the crypto assets derivatives market, it is not uncommon to encounter the phenomenon of correct directional judgment but facing forced liquidation. This article is based on years of real trading observations, systematically analyzing the root causes of this problem and elaborating on the core logic and execution framework of the scientific rollover strategy.
1. Phenomenon and Essence: Why is there still liquidation despite the correct direction?
Through continuous tracking of market behavior, it has been found th

Analysis of the Impact of the Federal Reserve's Halt on the Balance Sheet Reduction Policy on the Encryption Asset Market
Starting from December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve will officially terminate its three-year long asset-liability sheet reduction policy. This article aims to objectively assess the potential impact of this monetary policy shift on the global liquidity environment and the encryption currency market, as well as to explore the opportunities and challenges that emerging blockchain projects may face.
1. Policy Background and Mechanism Analysis
The Federal Reserve's bala

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Technical Trend Assessment of Bitcoin and Ethereum on November 28
Market Overview
On Thursday, November 28, 2024, the cryptocurrency market is showing a high-level consolidation pattern overall. After a previous rebound, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing resistance in key resistance areas, and technical indicators suggest that short-term pullback pressure is building up. This article provides objective operational references for investors based on multi-cycle technical analysis at the daily and 4-hour levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Daily level: Rebo

ETH $7200 target price: the triple resonance logic of institutional accumulation, technical upgrades, and deflationary mechanisms.
Recently, the price of Ethereum has undergone a deep adjustment in the range of $2800-$3000. As market panic spreads, on-chain data shows strong signals that diverge from the price. This article constructs a reasoning system for a mid-term target price of $7200 for ETH based on a four-dimensional framework of on-chain behavior analysis, technical pattern verification, fundamental upgrade catalysts, and institutional capital trends. The core logic is that the contin

Deep adjustment of the US dollar system: restructuring of asset allocation logic under the depreciation expectation in 2026
From the strong dollar to the arrival of the strategic depreciation turning point
At the end of 2025, the global foreign exchange market is undergoing a silent yet profound paradigm shift. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the critical psychological level of 99 after an annual decline of 8.8%, marking the weakest start to a year since the mid-1980s. Leading international institutions such as Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Pictet Asset Management are sounding alarms: in

Trump's Monetary Policy Pressure and the Encryption Market: Liquidity Game under Institutional Constraints
The gap between political intervention narratives and market realities
Recently, news regarding the Trump administration's deep intervention in the Federal Reserve's personnel appointments, using interest rate cut promises as a bargaining chip, has sparked heated discussions in the encryption community. Some viewpoints regard it as a "get-rich-quick signal" for the cryptocurrency market, believing that once the "fig leaf" of the traditional financial system is removed, funds w