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FourHundredAndEighty

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From February to March, the entire market was focused on BTC and ETH, with widespread expectations that they would plummet. Many speculated that the bottom of this cycle would be around 40k or 50k, and the market consensus was so strong that it was astonishing. Now, as we enter April, the market is at a critical juncture to choose a direction. This high level of consensus makes me cautious. It reminds me of when BTC was at 120k, and the market unanimously expected it to surge to 150k or even 200k, but then it was hit by the "Black Swan event on October 11," resulting in a sharp decline.
BTC-2,88%
ETH-3,88%
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Q2 From a technical indicator perspective, there should be a decent rebound, but in reality, it will be dragged down by the US stock market, and most likely it will continue to fluctuate within a wide range!
There is a chance, but not much. When it rises, don’t chase; when it falls, buy the dip for a swing trade!
The red circle on the left is the core accumulation zone before the previous breakout, and the red circle on the right is the current violent pullback, which in trading is called “structural support confirmation.”
The 60k-65k range is the main force’s bottom support zone; the true wil
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Trump's statements boil down to three points: 1. Withdrawal in 2-3 weeks; 2. During this time, Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age; 3. The United States has won big and has been winning all along, and will continue to win—winning big, winning big. As expected, he calls for a ceasefire before the market opens and says they want to fight after hours.
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Trump's statements are just three points:
1. Withdraw in 2-3 weeks
2. Will send Iran back to the Stone Age during this period
3. The U.S. has won big and has been winning, and will continue to win—winning big, winning big, winning big
Sure enough, they call for a ceasefire before the market opens and say they want to fight after hours.
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I don't have much to talk about today. I believe that next week, the market should move upward, or at least reach a support zone of 638-647, which can serve as a foundation. Additionally, the fan sector can start paying attention now—there are only about two months left until the World Cup. Most of the hype is happening one or two months in advance. Currently, I’m mainly watching a few: CHZ, Santos, and OG.
CHZ-6,94%
SANTOS-4,16%
OG2,22%
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BillAh:
CHZ is the leading project in the sports sector, Santos is the leading project in football-themed coins, and Clutch is the leading project for the World Cup mascot. You may want to keep an eye on Clutch.
Why does it feel less lively? Are the brothers feeling down because of the dip? By the way, a few buddies asked me if I only go long and don't short. It seems to be somewhat true. For example, this time I said I was taking a break when it was at 72k, and then in the comment section, someone asked when I would go long. I told them if they follow my advice, now is the time. Also, to my loyal and golden fans, I told them I won't be trading in the next few days.
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Trading is fundamentally not complicated at all. The core logic is clear and easy to understand—grasp the essentials and you can avoid taking detours.
Step one is to first determine the overall market direction: is it really a bull market or a bear market? Get the direction right, and you've already succeeded halfway at trading. Many people get tangled up in complex indicators and end up overlooking the most straightforward bull and bear characteristics.
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Trading is fundamentally not complicated at all. The core idea is clear and easy to understand—grasp the key points and you'll avoid many detours.
**Step One: First, identify the market's major direction—is it a bull market or a bear market? Get the direction right, and your trading is already half successful.** Many people get caught up in complex indicators and end up overlooking the most intuitive bull and bear characteristics.
My definition of bull and bear markets is straightforward: if a decline over a week can be fully recovered within just three days, that's a textbook bull market. In
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I have a perspective that differs from everyone else.
In the past, whenever there was a conflict, Bitcoin would rise.
Now, whenever there is a conflict, Bitcoin falls.
Nothing has changed fundamentally, and the market remains the same market.
The core reasons are:
1. The cycle has shifted. We were previously in the early stage of a bull market; now, at best, we are in the late stage of a bull market, but I personally believe we are already in a bear market.
2. The players have changed. Before: retail investors dominated + bull market = war news = buying opportunities. Now: ETF institutions dom
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The crypto market has never had unchanging market conditions. Bull and bear cycles, rises and falls, are like the tides—they're simply the most natural law. Rather than obsessing over temporary gains and losses, it's better to match your position sizing to your capital, find the right rhythm and direction, and deploy strategically with composure.
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Once this pullback ends, most sectors will launch the largest rally wave of this bull market cycle, and the gains will make your head spin. This is determined by the large-cycle K-line trend patterns—it's obvious what should normally happen from a glance. I'm not buying anything right now and patiently waiting until late April. After the major pullback ends, I'll add positions—it's only about 20+ trading days away. That will be a time when we're picking up gold everywhere. The downside space for this major pullback across different assets:
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Once this pullback ends, most sectors will launch the largest wave of gains in this bull market cycle, rising so dramatically it'll make your head spin.
This is determined by the large-cycle K-line trend patterns—you can see at a glance how it should normally move.
Right now I'm not buying anything and patiently waiting until the end of April. After the major pullback ends, I'll add to my positions with just 20-plus trading days remaining.
That's when it'll be a time to pick up gold everywhere.
Expected downside ranges for various assets during this major pullback:
Innovative pharmaceuticals,
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Every bull market cycle has commonalities and differences. What remains the same is the cycle itself, while what differs is the narrative, key players, pace, and volatility.
The cycle is the internal driver—the core force propelling bull market development. Meanwhile, various narratives that unfold during a bull market influence its pace and trajectory, ultimately resulting in different volatility levels that impact investor sentiment.
This holds true for China as well as the United States. The Chinese stock market is not as bad as some believe, nor is the U.S. stock market completely smooth s
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Job opportunities are becoming scarcer, economic growth is stagnating, and AI is rapidly replacing humans in an increasing number of jobs. As the space for production and employment continues to shrink, human society often looks for new outlets. Financial markets, especially the crypto markets, are very likely to be this outlet. In other words—many people in the future may find that the only opportunity they can grasp is speculation itself. Creating bubbles, embracing bubbles, and then making money from them.
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Job opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce, economic growth has stalled, and AI is rapidly replacing humans in more and more work.
When the space for production and employment continues to shrink, human society often seeks new outlets. The financial markets, especially the crypto market, are likely to be this outlet.
In other words—the only opportunity many people may be able to grasp in the future could be speculation itself.
Creating bubbles, embracing bubbles, and then making money from those bubbles.
This sounds absurd, but historically, many periods of prosperity were actually bor
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Bitcoin's ultimate scarcity logic
The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins. On-chain data indicates that about 3 million coins have permanently exited circulation due to lost private keys and damaged hard drives, making the truly circulating supply extremely scarce.
Compared to gold, fiat currency, and real estate, Bitcoin's store-of-value advantage lies in its absolute scarcity at the code level, non-inflatable issuance, global circulation, and ease of holding and transferring. Based on this logic, one Bitcoin could potentially rise to 7.5 million USD, approximately 50 millio
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Bitcoin's Ultimate Scarcity Logic
Bitcoin's total supply is fixed at 21 million coins. On-chain data shows approximately 3 million coins have been permanently removed from circulation due to lost private keys and destroyed hard drives, making the truly available supply extremely scarce.
Compared to gold, fiat currency, and real estate, Bitcoin's value storage advantage lies in code-level absolute scarcity, non-inflationary supply, global circulation, and easy holding and transfer.
Following this logic, a single Bitcoin could potentially rise to $7.5 million, approximately 50 million RMB.
Is th
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This recent wave of "lobster craze" is actually quite interesting. On the surface, it looks like an AI revolution, but the core essence is more like a precise class-filtering game. 🦞 You'll notice that those truly enthusiastic about "raising lobsters" are basically bosses, entrepreneurs, and major social media influencers; ordinary office workers rarely participate. The reason is quite straightforward: lobsters are essentially a
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# The Recent "Lobster Craze" Is Actually Quite Interesting
The surface narrative is an AI revolution, but the core dynamic looks more like a precision class-sorting game. 🦞
You'll notice that those genuinely enthusiastic about "lobster farming" are mostly bosses, entrepreneurs, and social media influencers—regular employees rarely participate. The reason is straightforward: lobsters are essentially a Token shredder, with monthly feed costs easily exceeding ten thousand. For bosses, they're "digital employees" working 24/7, theoretically cheaper than hiring people; but for employees, they're m
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Today, let's talk about the macro cycle logic of Bitcoin and connect several key factors. First, let's discuss the halving. Historically, the typical bull market cycle usually begins to brew about a year before the halving. After the halving, miners' production costs will significantly increase, and from past cycles, even at the most conservative points of the bull market top, prices have generally reached at least 1.5 times the mining cost.
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