Is the cryptocurrency market迎政策暖风，行情转折点已至
#达沃斯世界经济论坛 ?
The Bitcoin payment bill is advancing in multiple states, and the Federal Reserve Chair frontrunner has expressed a positive attitude. Market bearish sentiment is quietly shifting—cryptocurrency markets seem to be at the starting point of a new wave.
This morning’s crypto news updates are once again filling the screen: Oklahoma has submitted a bill proposing to allow Bitcoin payments; a key hearing on crypto market structure legislation is scheduled for next week; Riot Platforms executives openly state that taxing Bitcoin in the US is “unjustified.”
Meanwhile, funding rate data shows that market bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin and SOL is easing. These signals, intertwined, outline the current policy environment and sentiment shift in the cryptocurrency market.
Policy Winds
The policy environment for cryptocurrencies is quietly changing. The latest bill submitted in Oklahoma directly challenges traditional payment systems, marking another US state-level move to open the door for Bitcoin payments after Florida.
This trend is not isolated; it reflects a growing openness to cryptocurrencies at the local level across the US. Policymakers are beginning to realize that excessive restrictions could drive innovation overseas.
Next week’s key hearing on crypto market structure legislation will see bipartisan lawmakers propose amendments. This indicates that cryptocurrencies are moving from the regulatory fringe toward mainstream legislation, providing clearer compliance pathways for the market.
While Ukraine’s ban on Polymarket appears negative, such events are not uncommon during the early stages of crypto industry development. Crypto-friendly policies are gradually being realized worldwide, as evidenced by adjustments in Bitcoin tax policies in multiple countries.
Tax Barriers
The promotion of Bitcoin payments still faces significant obstacles, most notably tax policies. Strive executives bluntly state, “The biggest obstacle to Bitcoin payments is tax policy.”
Current US tax policies require capital gains tax on Bitcoin transactions, making small daily payments complicated and impractical. Riot Platforms executives point out that Bitcoin is tax-exempt in many countries but faces unreasonable tax burdens in the US.
Adjustments to tax policies could become a key catalyst for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies. As more countries and state governments consider policy changes, barriers to Bitcoin as a payment method are gradually decreasing.
If the US relaxes its tax policies, it could trigger a series of ripple effects, promoting practical applications of Bitcoin in retail and commercial scenarios, thereby supporting its intrinsic value.
Market Sentiment
Funding rate data reveals subtle shifts in market sentiment. Current mainstream CEX and DEX data show that bearish sentiment towards BTC and SOL is easing.
Funding rates are mechanisms in perpetual contract markets used to balance long and short positions. Positive rates indicate dominance by longs, while negative rates show shorts are in control. The current narrowing of negative rates suggests decreasing short pressure.
This shift in market sentiment is not coincidental. It resonates with the improving policy environment and reflects growing investor confidence in the outlook for cryptocurrencies.
It’s worth noting that this sentiment shift is still in early stages and has not yet formed a clear bullish consensus, which instead provides a good entry point for cautious investors.
Macro Environment
The macro environment also influences the crypto market. Rick Rieder’s chances of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair have risen to 58%, making him the top contender.
This BlackRock global fixed income chief investment officer is seen as a moderate candidate, with a relatively open attitude toward emerging asset classes. If Rick Rieder indeed takes the helm at the Fed, cryptocurrencies could enjoy a more friendly policy environment.
Federal Reserve policies directly impact global liquidity, which is a key driver for the crypto market. A more accommodative monetary policy environment would benefit risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
It’s important to note that Fed personnel changes are just one of many macro variables. Global geopolitical situations, inflation trends, and economic growth prospects will all influence the medium- and long-term performance of cryptocurrencies.
Market Outlook
Considering current policy trends, tax environment changes, market sentiment adjustments, and macro factors, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical turning point.
Gradually clarifying policies provide a more stable development environment; breakthroughs in tax barriers could unlock the potential of Bitcoin payment scenarios; the mild shift in market sentiment reflects a recovery in investor confidence; macro changes could bring more favorable liquidity conditions.
In the short term, the market may continue to oscillate within the current range, awaiting clearer policy signals. In the medium term, with the advancement of crypto market structure legislation and increased adoption of Bitcoin payments in more regions, cryptocurrencies could see a new wave of valuation reappraisal.
Investors should focus on key events: the outcome of the crypto market structure legislation hearing, progress on more state-level Bitcoin payment bills, and the final results of Fed personnel changes.
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An interesting detail is that while Oklahoma and Florida promote Bitcoin payment bills, Ukraine has banned the prediction market platform Polymarket on grounds of illegal gambling.
This policy divergence reveals differing perceptions among global regulators regarding cryptocurrencies and hints that the future crypto market will navigate a complex path amid these divergences and consensus.
Current funding rates show that bearish sentiment has eased, and the market seems to be accumulating strength for the next wave. Improvements in the regulatory environment and increased institutional acceptance are laying a more solid foundation for the crypto market.
The policy winds have risen, tax barriers are loosening, and market sentiment is warming—perhaps the crypto winter is quietly coming to an end.
