【Interest rate hike implemented, why is the market “going against the flow”?】
At 11 a.m., the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike as expected, raising the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Unlike previous statements that “said but didn’t say,” Governor Ueda Haruhiko’s speech in the afternoon conveyed a clear hawkish signal: if economic data (especially wages and inflation in a benign cycle) support it, the central bank “will continue to raise the policy rate.” In other words, this is not the end; future rate hikes will depend on demand.
An event that

#加密市场观察 #今日你看涨还是看跌？
Tonight, Wall Street's script is more intense than expected. After the US stock market opened, BTC staged a classic "roller coaster" ride, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from excitement to panic within an hour.
Here's a simple breakdown of this wave:
1. The Nasdaq index surged over 2.5% at one point, and the S&P 500 also approached a 2% gain.
Sudden change: Buying pressure evaporated instantly during trading, and panic selling caused the indices to be "pushed back" from high levels into deep water. Ultimately, the Nasdaq closed down 2.15%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%

[Key game before interest rate cut]
Folks, the market is holding its breath and waiting for the Fed's decision at 3 a.m.
Although interest rate cuts are almost a foregone conclusion, Lao Bao's speech is more important - whether to "cheer" the market or "pour cold water" will determine the quality of this wave of rebound at the end of the year. Under this macro sentiment, the technical side has become extremely sensitive.
1. The current market price is hesitating in front of key resistance
Price level: BTC fell back after hitting $94,500, and is currently in a fierce competition between long an

[Weekend Strategy Brief | Pay Attention to Key Watersheds]
Happy weekend, everyone. The market has entered a range-bound consolidation mode. Here’s a summary of the key framework for your intraday reference:
📍 Core Long/Short Watershed
- BTC: 89500-89800 area (if it holds above this level on the hourly, turns stronger; if it loses this level, expect choppy pullback)
- ETH: 3033-3050 area (same logic, above is strong, below is weak)
⚡ Today's Trading Logic
1. If it holds above the watershed:
- BTC targets: 91300 → 92600 → 94000
- ETH targets: 3080 → 3110 → 3150
- Strategy: If price pu

#十二月行情展望 #比特币行情观察 #加密市场观察 #今日你看涨还是看跌？
Hey everyone, after watching the charts all day, it feels like BTC is a hamster on a treadmill—just not breaking out of the box.
Good Mood Brought by a Data Surprise
Today's macro news is quite interesting. The US just released the ADP employment data, and it's a shocker. In November, private sector jobs unexpectedly decreased by 32,000, the largest drop in nearly two years. Normally, this would be decidedly bearish, but now the market is playing the "bad news is good news" script.
Why? Because it’s made the market almost certain that the Fed will cut rat

📊 December 3 Market Analysis
Dear friends, BTC quickly pulled back after touching $93,920 at midday, and the structure has now returned to a state of choppy consolidation. The current market focus is very clear: whether BTC can hold the key support range of $92,000 - $93,000.
On the macro level, two major events:
1. The Fed’s “uncertainty”: Trump is stepping up efforts to influence the Federal Reserve leadership and has hinted at nominating well-known dove Kevin Hassett as the next chair. The market is repricing for this, expecting potentially more accommodative monetary policy in the future.

[11.24 Morning Market Dynamics and Today's Views]
This morning, the market experienced a pullback and a rebound structure. ETH initially stabilized around 2761 before rising to 2866; BTC also rebounded from a low of 85902, reaching a high of 88016, showing an overall bullish rebound pattern after an hourly correction.
Key structure for today:
BTC: The 85550 level on the 4-hour chart remains an important support level. Last night's rebound confirmed the validity of the support in the 83400–86400 range. Currently, it is essential to observe whether the 88000–88300 area can hold effective

📈[November 23 Night Market Strategy | Oversold Rebound Begins, Key Position Operations]
Friends who are watching the market tonight should have felt that the market finally took a breather. Bitcoin has rebounded over 2000 points from its lows, and Ethereum has also risen by more than 100 points. Although the magnitude is not large, it is a good thing to stabilize at this position.
🔍 Today's Market Core Features
1. Rebound on decreased volume: The trading volume over the weekend did not significantly increase, indicating that this rebound is mainly due to short covering and a small number

📉 "Sit-up" market has arrived! Bitcoin has been bouncing around the $100,000 mark for the past two days, fell and dropped below $99,000, and yesterday it struggled to climb back above $104,000.
🔍 The focus of the long and short game
The current market is at a critical balance point, with both bulls and bears looking for direction.
The bearish strength mainly comes from two aspects:
Institutional funds are cautious in the short term. The US Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced net outflows for six consecutive days, totaling about $137 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net

📉 [November 5th Update | $100,000 support level breached, bullish traders returned to square one overnight, a few things to know about crawling back from the abyss]
😭 How miserable was yesterday?
Account Slimming: Bitcoin has fallen over 20% from its historical high in October, dropping below 100,000 to reach 98,000 last night, and it broke through the black swan spike of 101,000, marking the first time it has fallen below the 100,000 mark since June.
Bullish traders collectively buried: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $2.065 billion, among whic

📣 [November 4th Update | Market panic spreads, market makers use Unfavourable Information to Whipsaw]
🔥 Core Event Overview
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.279 billion USD, with 340,000 people being liquidated, and the proportion of long positions exceeding 90%.
Unfavourable Information Threefold Strike:
1. Balancer suffers a hack with losses exceeding $120 million, triggering panic in DeFi.
2. Federal Reserve officials are intensively hawkish, with Daly, Cook, and others suggesting that "a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion," causing market expectations

📣 [October 30 Updates | Hawkish Rate Cut Impacts Market, Key Support Defense]
🔥 Event Sorting
- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell sent a hawkish signal, stating that "a rate cut in December is far from a done deal."
- The market's expectation probability for a rate cut in December plummeted from 95% to 65% (some data shows it dropped to 71%), triggering risk-averse sentiment.
- Bitcoin once fell below $108,000, Ethereum lost $3,900, and the total contract liquidation across the network reached $591 million.
🎯 Key Support and Resistance Lev

Reminder on October 28: Be cautious of "Favourable Information" being fully priced in after the interest rate cut.
Market sentiment is indeed more optimistic than last week. This week, global market events are dense, aptly termed "Super Central Bank Week", with the core focus undoubtedly being the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The key events to watch this week are ⬇️
📅 October 30 ( Thursday ) Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the market expects a very high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut (about 98%-99%). The focus is on Powell's press conference for guidance

[Night Market Strategy on October 23]
🌍 Night Drive
1. US stock market update: Dow hits all-time high while Nasdaq weakens, technology stocks diverge (Tesla down 2.3%)
2. Trump Risk: As the November 1 tariff deadline approaches, sudden tweets may trigger fluctuations, with statements made at 3 AM.
3. Capital flow: After gold plummeted by 5%, some funds may rotate into the cryptocurrency market.
4. Whale 21:45 Long
🎯 Key Position Offense and Defense
BTC 109,200 (4-hour support)
Break through 110,300 and stabilize, looking at 111,500+
Long position levels: 108,500; 107,500
ETH 3,780 (daily lev

[October 22 Night Market Strategy]
📉 Macroeconomic pressure continues
· US stock futures broadly decline (Nasdaq futures down 0.8%), tech stocks under pressure
· The shadow of Trump's tariffs has not dissipated, and market risk aversion is rising.
· The US dollar index remains at a high level, with funds flowing out of risk assets.
🎯 Key offensive and defensive points at night
BTC
Stand firm at 108,650 (looking up at 109,600-111,111)
Break below 107,400 (looking down to 106,080→104,555)
Long Position: 107,300-107,500 (Last Line of Defense for Bulls)
ETH
Stand firm at 3,850 (looking up

📊 Daytime (trading hours) trading strategy
The market usually extends overnight trends and undergoes technical adjustments, with a focus on key support and resistance levels. (Trump mentions tariffs again; the Fed's rate cut next week is gaining momentum)
The Bitcoin 110,000 support line has been broken, closing below 109,200 on the 4-hour chart, structure has turned bearish.
Ethereum has just broken below the key support level of 3,900, and the hourly chart shows a descending channel.
🎯 Key support and resistance levels
BTC
109,800-110,300 (rebound resistance)
107,300-107,500 (last line

📢[October 20 Evening Update | Three Factors Driving the Rise, Beware of Nighttime Trend Reversal Risks] Did you catch this rebound?
📈 Analysis of Today's Price Increase
The trade situation between China and the United States has eased. During an interview, Trump confirmed that he will meet with Chinese officials in two weeks and candidly stated that a 100% tariff is "unsustainable." This statement significantly alleviated market anxiety and became the core driving force behind the rebound of risk assets.
Market sentiment is recovering, and the US stock market sentiment has been soothed,

📜 Futures Trading Opening Discipline Manual on Position Management
(Opening Position, Take Profit and Stop Loss, Moving Break-even, Forced Liquidation Analysis)
Core Concept: Futures are a game of risk management, not gambling. The primary task is to preserve the position, and only then to make a profit; holding onto a position is a major taboo. Follow the trend; even if the price eventually returns, the fluctuations during the process may trigger a forced liquidation through leverage.
Most Futures Trading Career End Process:
First order: 10x → Small profit
Second order: 20x → Earned again
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