What is PCE? Why must investors pay attention
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE, Price Change Index) is a key economic indicator that measures changes in U.S. household spending. In simple terms, it tracks consumer expenditure trends in areas such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, and healthcare, representing the most important driver of the economy—consumption capacity.
Why should you pay attention? Because fluctuations in the PCE index directly influence the policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which in turn impacts global financial markets. When the PCE index rises, it indicates increasing inflationary pressure, and the Fed may continue to raise interest rates; conversely, if it falls, rate hikes may pause. These chain reactions are transmitted through exchange rates, commodity prices, stock markets, and other channels to markets like Taiwan.
From historical data, see the real power of the PCE index
To understand the influence of the PCE index, let's look at two real cases.
2009 Financial Crisis