InTheEnd,Can'tItBe

This is not a purely trending pattern nor a purely oscillating one, but a pullback and oscillation phase within a trending market. The support zone focuses on 2280-2300 (the previous low-density area). If it can hold, the logic of the upward trend continuation remains; if it drops below 2280 with increased volume, a reassessment is needed in the short term. From an operational perspective, it is not suitable to chase highs; it would be safer to wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering further actions.

Short-term daily fluctuations of around 3% are considered normal; however, from a quarterly perspective, a -33% drawdown indicates that overall, the period still remains in a high-volatility state. Bottom signals have appeared, but sentiment is still in the fear zone, and it is advisable to stay in an observation phase for now.

Last weekend, the US-Iran negotiations completely broke down, and Trump immediately announced that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This directly drove the decline you’re seeing. BTC briefly fell below 70,600, and oil prices jumped in tandem by 7%, a typical “risk assets retreat across the board” reaction. Now BTC is around 71,170, and ETH is reported at 2,197. Both are down about 1–1.3% over the past 24 hours, but compared with the moment right after the news first broke, they’ve already started to recover somewhat.

The US-Iran ceasefire negotiations ended in failure, and this news directly triggered a wave of volatility in the short term. The market had already priced in an optimistic "positive negotiations" sentiment in advance, but was then proven wrong, resulting in a sharp correction — BTC is currently at $71,653, down 1.6% in 24 hours, ETH also fell 0.88%, with the high point dropping to around $2,500 from the deepest dip so far.

Last week, the MSBT (Morgan Stanley Spot BTC ETF) just launched, with $34 million flowing in on the first day. The 0.14% management fee is the lowest in the industry. More importantly, Morgan Stanley is the first major traditional bank to enter the market, meaning high-net-worth private banking clients now have a more compliant and lower-fee institutional gateway, and the potential for future growth is significant.

The underlying logic is quite complex: Iran has already incorporated BTC into international settlements, Japan and Switzerland are also advancing policy acceptance, and sovereign-level recognition is accelerating. Institutions like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley are continuously increasing their holdings in ETFs, and the BTC balance on exchanges has even fallen to its lowest point in nearly a decade, indicating that more and more people are holding without selling. However, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lowest level since early 2024, and this compression usually suggests that a signif

ETH currently appears to be a technical rebound after a significant decline, with short-term momentum looking good, but the top characteristics at the daily chart level have already appeared. The cost-effectiveness of chasing long positions at this level is not high; it's more suitable to wait for a pullback to confirm support before making a judgment— the zone between 2136 and 2200 is a key area to watch for potential support.

The hourly moving averages are arranged in a bullish order (MA7 > MA30 > MA120), indicating a clear trend direction. The ADX is as high as 44.6, showing solid upward momentum. The daily chart has just experienced a golden cross of the moving averages, signaling a bullish bias. However, the issue also appears on the daily chart: both the CCI and Williams WR are in overbought zones, and the SAR is still above the K line, indicating that the daily level has not fully turned bullish yet — there is a real risk of a pullback after reaching above 73,000.

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This is the most core transmission pathway. When the central bank sells large amounts of U.S. Treasuries, bond prices fall and yields rise, causing the market's "risk-free rate" to increase, and funds withdraw from high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies to flow into bonds. Recently, this linkage has become very clear. In early 2026, during the "sell-off America" trading wave, as U.S. Treasury yields soared, Bitcoin temporarily dropped below $90k, and Ethereum declined nearly 11% in a week. The analyst's original words at the time were: "Cryptocurrencies are no longer traded as safe-haven

Bitcoin mining company Cango discloses March operational data: the production cost per BTC has dropped to approximately $68,215, down about 19% from the previous $84,552. The company actively reduces costs through a "lean production model," indirectly reflecting the industry's profit pressure at the current price range.

Currently reporting 71,409 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of +3.98% and a 7-day increase of +4.84%. The price has broken through the near 7-day high, with increased volume and significantly higher capital participation. However, on the 15-minute, 4-hour, and daily charts, the CCI and WR are all in overbought territory. When chasing gains, control the pace and avoid blindly following during the overbought exhaustion phase.

The daily chart MA7 < MA30 < MA120, a typical bearish alignment. The 4-hour MACD has already shown a death cross (DIF crossing below DEA), and downward momentum is still being released. The latest price is about 67,920 USDT, down over 2.5% in 24 hours, with increased volume on the decline—panic selling is still happening. But here's the interesting part: on the daily MACD, a bullish divergence signal has appeared (price making new lows but DIF not sinking accordingly), and there is a similar divergence structure on the 15-minute short-term chart. In other words, the downward momentum may be gr

Tom Lee’s BitMine swept another 71,252 ETH in the past week (about $152 million), bringing total holdings to nearly 4.8 million ETH, or close to 4% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. This scale of continued stockpiling is one of the most obvious bullish signals in recent times, and even Tom Lee himself has publicly said that “ETH is at the tail end of a ‘mini crypto winter.’”

The daily moving average alignment is MA7 < MA30 < MA120, a typical bearish structure, with the medium-term trend pointing downward; the price has fallen more than 33% in the past 90 days, but the main trend remains unchanged. The Bollinger Bands have contracted to the lowest level in nearly 30 days, indicating "bandwidth narrowing, a reversal is imminent." Next, it will either break through in a chosen direction or continue to oscillate and bottom out. In the short-term 15-minute chart, ADX=31.8 and MDI is far greater than PDI, indicating that the downward trend strength is still present, mak

The biggest long-position main player is BitMine (an Ethereum treasury company under Tom Lee) — last week, it bought another 71,252 ETH. Its total holdings have exceeded 4.8 million ETH, accounting for about 4% of the circulating supply across the entire network, and the staked portion has reached 3.33 million ETH. Tom Lee himself also publicly called out that since geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, ETH has been the second-best performing asset globally, behind only gold as a safe-haven asset, outperforming BTC and stocks.