YangDongxu'sCommentary

Generally speaking, whether it’s a move to strength or a move to weakness, there is a turning-point signal. It is either a wave-pattern structure or an oscillating correction and consolidation. At present, wave ③ has already played out, and after wave ③, there will be a rebound wave. The correction phase is also a recent continuous oscillation and consolidation, which is a signal of base-building. Although in the past, the retracement after a bull run followed a proportional pattern, it is still far from the lowest point; but after the third time, it may not necessarily continue to extend down

#BTC Recently, there has been continuous news from the Middle East, whether good or bad, it doesn't have much impact on the short-term trend structure anymore, and the movements have also become noticeably smaller. Besides paying attention to the fundamentals, the trend structure is also essential. The recent trend has been a oscillating correction; although yesterday was a bullish candlestick, it did not form a three-white soldiers pattern, so it remains in the correction phase. As long as the local low support is not broken, the outlook is still upward; conversely, if the support below is b

A new week, a new journey. Last week’s overall movement was still mainly range-bound oscillation. During that time, it was enough to see a high-area “kong” and a low-area “duo.” Yesterday, when it tested the upper Bollinger band on the 3-day chart, it did not break through; then it was pulled back again by the fundamentals. However, it was not able to engulf the previous three days of gains with one bearish candle. The bottom support was not broken. After yesterday switched to “kong,” it first took 1000 points; then when the bottom support tested again with “duo,” it was another 700 points. Th

Another week has passed, and the market still hasn't broken out of a unilateral continuation trend, still oscillating within the 65 to 75 range. This structure is typical of a corrective consolidation phase after a unilateral trend. The previous cycle also experienced two months of continuous fluctuation, and it has now lasted for two months as well. Such consolidation periods usually do not exceed three months, so it is not advisable to persist in the idea of a large-range oscillation afterward.
The probability of a unilateral trend increases gradually with the duration of the oscillation, an

Last weekend, I mentioned that the weekend wouldn't be dull and wouldn't just have a volatility of merely k points like previous weekends, and it shouldn't be treated as a range-bound fluctuation. The trend has also been like this; on Sunday, it directly pumped 3500 points, and Monday continued the upward trend. After being swept 500 points on Sunday, the market immediately turned around, gaining 4000 points over two days. So previously, weekends were all about watching the range, and even if the position wasn't great, it could still be taken, but last week, things were happeni

There was no continuation of the upward trend on Friday, but instead a continued volatile performance. In the early morning live broadcast on Friday, it was mentioned that the maximum upper level of the fluctuation was 110400, while the lower level was the low point. Yesterday, the market first ran within the range, with fluctuations back and forth, and during the night, it was a wait-and-see situation. In the early morning, there was a decisive rebound, adding positions back to around 109000. Overall, the low-level fluctuations met expectations, but it is a bit regrettable that there was no s

After the downward movement of the market on Monday, I mentioned that it would first experience a range-bound fluctuation. However, yesterday afternoon I stated that we can no longer look at the range and should chase the market. In the evening, the market made a strong push downward again with higher trade volumes. It's another rhythm of over 3000 points, and after the higher trade volumes, it becomes a fluctuation structure. In the short term, some gains have also been made. This has always been emphasized, as the likelihood of a correction after a strong push is very high, which means r

The recent trend can be described as perfect, first soaring over 3000 points, followed by a drop of several thousand points. Yesterday, the market took down 1800 points during the day and also at night, reaching 2000 points. As early as Monday, after the market started to decline with higher trade volumes, it had already predicted a range-bound movement. The range-bound movement depends on the volatility in the last hour; if the volatility is significant enough, it will move around the high and low points of the last hour. If not, it will move around the high and low points of the four-hour pe

The intraday K-line is strongly increasing in trade volume, with the morning K-line already at 2500 points. Currently, I am still holding on to the reduction, and the lowest volume has not yet been reached, which is a bit greedy. It is a pity that the weekly cycle broke the boll middle band without any continuation. However, although there is a rebound now, the strength is still not enough, so I prudently sold half first and will continue to wait for the remaining half. At present, it seems we need to shake at the low level first. The K-line can be observed around 113000 to 113400, looking at

After a high rise yesterday, there has been a continued decline. In the early morning, there was a reduction of 1300 points, and according to the fundamentals, once the fundamentals were out, there was a long wick candle, and the high point continued to add to the decline. After that, in the early morning, it weakened first to test the bottom support, and the decline was at the support level with a total of 1500 points. The support was not broken, and there was a slight rebound afterwards, with a position of 1600 points in the afternoon. Although the position is not particularly good, it is st

The intraday trend first surged, then pulled back. In the afternoon, there were some gains, and later in the evening, there were also a few, but not much, all around 600 points. It has already pulled back for the second time, and interestingly, the lower level at 113000 will be the liquidation point for the gains. If ETH continues to weaken, then BTC will first test the liquidation point, and gains can continue to be watched. Once liquidation occurs, it can extend further, while the liquidation point for the gains is at 117000, which is also a strong resistance. So, we can focus around this le

The weekend is in a volatile range, and I don't know how many times I've mentioned this. Generally, the volatility over the weekend is not too large, and big fluctuations are rare, and any significant fluctuations must be supported by fundamentals. Therefore, not much can be gained from the weekend's trend, but it is also quite tedious. This week, the market has undoubtedly closed positively after a series of declines, and following the consecutive bearish days, we are now seeing consecutive bullish days again. So, will next week see three consecutive bullish days or a turn to bear

After the morning pullback to 115000, it has continued a narrow range of fluctuations for a relatively long time. Since it is fluctuating, it is equivalent to building momentum. Currently, the market dynamics show weak employment, which could either result in another increase in the number of rate cuts, totaling four, or an increase in the basis points for the rate cut to 50 basis points. This undoubtedly sets a foundation, and Doudan can continue to wait. There is still an upward expectation.

The evening fundamentals show that the Cpi has pulled back, unemployment has increased, and the rate cut is still 25 basis points, but the number of rate cuts has increased. After the long wick candle, the trend has been not only slow but also inactive, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations without clear signals. Currently, there have been several pullbacks, and yesterday's fluctuations were waiting for the Cpi. The intraday evening fluctuations seem a bit strange, and the trend reflects this as well. The trend structure is slightly strong, but the daily Bollinger Bands are narrowing,

The market maker is quietly moving, and the Cpi action is bound to be significant. It is not difficult to see from the recent trends that the movements are actually not large. According to the wave amplitude theory, a movement of around 3000 points can only be considered average, and a slightly larger movement would be 5-6k points. This is still within normal amplitude. A larger movement would indicate a major fundamental impact, while the extreme amplitude is 14%, but such extremes rarely occur, maybe just once or twice a year. Therefore, the recent amplitude can only be described as average.

Last night, after the upward movement of the market, it was mentioned that there would not be too much pump, and it would first move in a range to gather strength for the CPI. This is routine and a classic trend before the major fundamentals arrive, so last night, the focus shifted to the range. During this time, some short positions were taken, totaling 1200 points. After that, the low position was taken down for 1000 points in the afternoon, then switched to long positions. Currently, the long positions are still waiting, and the target is not set too far ahead, waiting for the evening CPI.

Although the main market was quite sluggish yesterday, there were still some higher trade volumes. After the pullback last night, there was a brief surge, and then again a little bit was gained. Overall, it just managed to break even. Last night, it was mentioned that the CPI would be released this evening, which means that the CPI movement will be significant. Before such major fundamentals arrive, there won’t be higher trade volumes; instead, there needs to be a buildup of strength first. Therefore, the trend will initially fluctuate, as it has always been before major fundamentals arrive.

For two consecutive days, there was a pullback after a surge. Yesterday, the pullback was stronger, and after the daily string was retracted in the morning, it first experienced a slight pullback before slowly moving upward. The trend is still repeating itself. At midday, the K line provided a pullback stance after the pump, leaving an ant's pump. In the evening, the fundamental factors strongly pumped again, continuing to pump, with a slight pullback followed by a small bamboo stance. These past two days have not been very ideal; although 1200 points were gained yesterday, there were some

The morning saw another rebound, and in the afternoon, it will be a bit volatile. Recently, the performance of the market has been relatively poor. The high point of the fundamental pullback yesterday was at 112900. As long as this level holds, there is still an expectation of a pullback. However, if it breaks, then I don't expect the upward pressure to hold, so we can use 112900 as a defensive point. For targets, let's not look too far for now; first, we will look at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart, and if it breaks, we can then look around 110900. #btc

Yesterday, the strong pullback was influenced by the fundamentals, and after returning to a low position, it continued to fluctuate. This indicates that the market lacks continuity. Today, the price repeated the movements of the previous two days, with a slight pullback in the morning and a rebound in the afternoon. Currently, the rebound is just at the middle band of the hourly Bollinger Bands, which presents some minor resistance. It might be wise to take a step back here. Watch around 110900 near #btc #ETH .