MasterChuTheOldDemonMaster

#AprilMarketOutlook
#四月行情预测
Final Negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz crisis, at the heart of the US-Iran tension, has severely disrupted global energy flows since February 2026. Iran's de facto closure of the strait or heavy restrictions on passage (with some reports alleging a $2 million transit fee per ship) have affected approximately 20% of global oil trade. Developments in the last 24-48 hours reveal both optimistic signals and deep contradictions in negotiations for a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait. However, the inconsistencies in the statements of the parties indicate that any concrete agreement is still a long way off.
US President Donald Trump stated on March 31, 2026, that US military operations in Iran could end "within 2 to 3 weeks." Trump emphasized that the security of the strait was no longer the responsibility of the US, but should be undertaken by "the countries using the strait," criticizing allies (especially European countries and NATO) by telling them to "take your own oil." While the White House claims that “serious talks” are ongoing with Iran and that “great progress” has been made, it is alleged that Trump has had indirect contacts with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
On the other hand, the Iranian side is responding with a clear rejection. Tehran repeatedly emphasizes that it is not conducting any formal negotiations with the US. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that it is turning back ships attempting to pass through the strait and will respond harshly. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that they are “ready to end the war,” but that this is only possible with “concrete guarantees that will guarantee the security and interests of the Iranian people.” Pezeshkian also demanded guarantees against future attacks during a meeting with the President of the European Council. Iranian officials state that they have rejected the US’s 15-point proposal and will not compromise on their sovereign rights over the strait.
The latest situation in the negotiations can be summarized as follows:
- US side: Indirect messaging and claims of “progress”; Trump’s recent statement signals that operations may end soon.
- Iranian side: No official talks, just a message of “we are ready but we want guarantees.”
- Third parties: There are reports of Pakistan, China, and some European countries playing a mediating role, but no concrete progress has been publicly disclosed. - The situation of the Strait: It is still largely closed or heavily restricted; neither the US nor Iran has taken concrete steps towards a full opening.
Analysts interpret Trump's approach of "leaving the Strait to others" as a "post-war withdrawal" strategy, while warning that geopolitical risk will continue. Experts state that attempts to forcibly reopen it (including ground operations) could have very dangerous consequences and that diplomacy is the only realistic way. At this stage, with both sides maintaining their positions, the possibility of a permanent ceasefire or the liberalization of the Strait in April remains uncertain.
**This is in no way investment advice, market forecast, or endorsement.** Events can change rapidly; contradictory statements and uncertainties can lead to new developments at any moment. Approaching geopolitical issues cautiously and with distance, conducting your own independent research, and following official sources is always the most accurate approach. I recommend that you personally follow current developments.

#PowellDovishRemarksReviveRateCutHopes
1/ What Actually Happened?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has officially begun charging commercial vessels and tankers up to $2 million per voyage to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which is widely recognized as the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. What started as an informal and ad-hoc collection of “protection fees” by the IRGC is now being formally codified into law by Iran’s parliament. This move is highly significant — it signals that Iran is asserting full control over one of the world’s most important maritime trade arteries and is creating a consistent revenue stream from international shipping.
2/ Why the Strait of Hormuz Is So Critical
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a narrow waterway; it is the lifeline of global energy markets. Approximately 20–21% of all global oil exports pass through this narrow channel, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar all rely on this route for their energy exports. Any disruption in Hormuz can instantly ripple across the global economy, triggering spikes in oil prices and raising fears of supply shortages. Alternative pipelines and ports exist, but they are already operating at full capacity, leaving little room for rerouting large volumes of oil. The world simply cannot bypass Hormuz at scale, which makes any formal toll or restriction there a matter of global economic consequence.
3/ The Fee Structure and Compliance
Under the new system, ships are being charged up to $2,000,000 per voyage. Iran is accepting payments in Chinese Yuan, Iranian Rial, or USDT on the Tron network, which is a landmark moment for the real-world adoption of stablecoins in high-stakes, geopolitical transactions. Ships are also required to provide detailed documentation, including crew lists, cargo manifests, and full voyage plans, which the IRGC reviews before granting passage. Enforcement remains selective for now, but the clear message is that Iran is laying the groundwork for state-backed toll collection that will persist over time.
4/ Immediate Impact on Shipping
The effects on shipping have been dramatic. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by 70–80%, leaving hundreds of vessels waiting outside the strait. Insurance costs have surged, with Lloyd’s of London adjusting war-risk premiums accordingly. Alternative routes, including the Saudi East-West pipeline and UAE’s Fujairah terminal, are already at full capacity, which leaves no immediate buffer for diverted traffic. At least two vessels are confirmed to have paid the toll in Chinese Yuan, signaling early compliance and acceptance of the new regime.
5/ India’s Response
India managed to secure passage for four LPG vessels, but its stance remained firm:
“International law guarantees freedom of navigation. No state can legally levy fees on an international strait.”
Despite this strong position, India had to negotiate safe passage for the vessels, highlighting the complex interplay between international law and local enforcement in high-tension geopolitical areas.
6/ Iran’s “Hormuz Law”
Iranian lawmakers, including Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi, confirmed that the parliament is moving to formalize sovereignty and oversight over the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously creating a massive revenue stream. The estimated annual revenue from this toll could exceed $100 billion, marking a transformative change from ad-hoc IRGC collection to a structured state-sanctioned system. This is a clear signal that Iran views control over Hormuz not only as a strategic leverage point but also as a significant economic asset
7/ Oil Market Implications
Brent Crude is hovering around $100–112 per barrel as the market reacts to the growing tensions. EY-Parthenon forecasts an average of $88 per barrel for Q2 2026, approximately $20 higher than pre-conflict levels. Wall Street’s Fear Index (VIX) surged to 31, reflecting heightened risk perception across markets. Analysts describe the situation as a “multidimensional disruption”, simultaneously affecting crude refining, LNG shipments, and global logistics. This is not a temporary spike; the disruption is structural until the geopolitical situation stabilizes.
8/ Crypto Market — Short-Term Bearish Pressures
High oil prices and geopolitical risk are weighing on crypto markets. Persistent inflation and delayed Fed rate cuts are reducing liquidity, leading investors to sell risk assets including crypto. Bitcoin currently trades around $67,348, down 24% over the past 90 days. Ethereum is at $2,053, down 31% over the same period. The Fear & Greed Index sits in the Extreme Fear zone, reflecting investor anxiety. Leveraged positions are being liquidated, and altcoins are experiencing sharper declines than BTC, which is typical during periods of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical stress.
9/ Crypto Market — Long-Term Bullish Catalysts
Despite short-term headwinds, several structural drivers remain positive for crypto. Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like digital gold, maintaining relative strength versus altcoins during oil price spikes. Stablecoins, particularly USDT, have gained unprecedented real-world validation, as Iran is collecting transit fees in USDT on the Tron network. This demonstrates stablecoins’ potential as critical infrastructure for cross-border payments and geopolitical trade settlements. Furthermore, de-dollarization trends are accelerating, with Yuan and crypto becoming preferred over the US Dollar in strategic transactions. On-chain metrics indicate that long-term holders are accumulating rather than selling, suggesting smart money positioning for the next macro cycle.
10/ The Trump Factor
Trump recently announced that Iran allowed 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a “gift” to the US, which briefly eased oil prices. This indicates that backchannel diplomacy is at work. Full blockade or confrontation is not in Iran’s immediate interest, as the state prioritizes stable revenue from toll collection over outright conflict.
11/ Scenarios Going Forward
Looking ahead, three scenarios seem plausible. The base case, with simmering tensions and selective fee collection, has a 65% probability, likely keeping BTC in the $66k–$71k range and oil elevated, with crypto trading in a sideways grind. The bull case, where US-Iran diplomacy eases the crisis, has a 25% probability, which could trigger a risk-on rally with BTC climbing above $75k and altcoins rotating upward. Finally, the bear case, involving full escalation or a blockade of Hormuz, carries a 10% probability, potentially causing oil to spike parabolically and crypto to experience a sharp short-term decline before any relief rally emerges.
12/ Key Crypto Watchpoints
Investors should closely monitor live tanker AIS traffic data, Brent Crude price trends, and Fed rate cut signals, as these will directly influence crypto liquidity. Tracking USDT Tron network volume can provide insights into stablecoin adoption in geopolitical transactions. Additionally, Bitcoin dominance, currently around 58% and trending upward, indicates that altcoins remain weaker, which is important for positioning within the market.
13/ Final Word
Iran has effectively turned the world’s most critical oil chokepoint into a state-controlled toll booth, accepting payments in USDT and Yuan. Geopolitical upheaval is a stress test for crypto markets, yet Bitcoin remains resilient, stablecoins are being used in real global trade, and long-term investment theses remain intact. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but structural trends for crypto adoption and institutional integration continue unabated.