WaterExpoChaos

Another boring day of just going sideways... Just waiting for the US stock market to open and create some volatility to scalp a bit...
Regarding order placement: Buy and sell orders are very balanced... Ranging from 86.5 to 89k, there’s generally not much resistance... Within a 5% range, it’s also quite balanced... No clear direction... (Figure 1 Figure 2)
From the CVD perspective, spot and futures are also diverging... (Figure 3)
Spot has been continuously selling pressure across the entire network since yesterday’s drop... Net selling pressure around 200 million... (Aggregated spot CVD). How

The long positions' total delta has temporarily accumulated to 1B.. In the past 10 days, the peak of a single long position wave was approximately 800M~1.2B (on the 17th) (Figure 1)
At the same time, the sell orders on the order book above show an imbalance in the color band (Figure 2)

As soon as the US stock market opens, the spot selling pressure is endless...
In the past half hour, the contract delta has been positive (buy orders exceed sell orders), but unfortunately, the spot continues to be sold off...
The price keeps going down...
There is a huge divergence between the contract and spot CVD... But the price is still driven by spot selling pressure...

Pre-market US stocks with the latest GEX.. The positive gamma cap above continues to exist.. It has just shifted to short-term (expiring tomorrow).
After the giant options settlement this afternoon, you can feel the released liquidity actively positioning for longer-term options..
GEX changes almost every hour... and there are significant discrepancies between different platforms..
First, look at Laevitas ( Chart 1)
You can see the current major impact zones, with 90k being a huge negative gamma zone..
There is some doubt here because the conclusions differ from other platforms.
Assuming this

Looking back over the past three months, every major delivery has been accompanied by the Monday reversal curse: a surge in September, a plunge in October, a small dip in November. So after tomorrow’s super delivery day with 23 billion, how will the Monday script unfold?
Tomorrow’s year-end options with a notional value of 23 billion are about to settle.. This is a giant on an annual scale, and also the largest nominal amount delivery in cryptocurrency history.
This wave of settlement will have a huge impact on subsequent liquidity. Here are a few aspects:
1. Release of margin liquidity..
A la

Prices are consolidating, but today the 1D 25Δ Skew ( green line ) quietly rose above 25.
According to past patterns, when the 1D 25Δ Skew of puts and calls reaches this threshold, it often signals a subsequent upward move...
But for now, I plan to observe for a while before entering the market...
Because previously, I observed that the strong guiding effect of this skew threshold mainly occurs during sharp market fluctuations and pinning.
However, if the market is in consolidation, the subsequent trend indicated by the skew is still uncertain. Especially considering the lessons from last week

skew 20 + Low Bull Entry Model.. As shown in the figure

Today’s Market Scene 3 - GEX - Terrifying, retail and large investors are疯狂买85k的保险...
Near 85k faces extreme volatility, 90k continues to be a big trap..解除 on the 26th
Today’s GEX shows a very frightening situation.. (Figure 1)
The middle 87-89k are neutral zones.. Options market makers have little influence on the price trend..
However, there is a very large negative gamma zone around 85k.. (This negative gamma starts from 86k)
This means that if the price drops to the 85-86k range, options market makers will hedge by selling spot or shorting futures to maintain delta neutrality, and the l

Today Market Overview 2 - CVD Funding Situation
In the past week, from the 19th to the 22nd, the selling pressure in spot markets temporarily subsided.
Therefore, driven by futures contracts, there was a wave of small-range movements.
However, since the wave starting around the 22nd reaching 9W.. the selling pressure in the spot market has continued..
Over the past two days, the total net selling pressure across the entire network has reached 600 million (active shorts - active longs).
The price has also dropped from 90k to around 86k.. At least in the past two days, passive buy orders have

Today Market 1 - CVD Funding Situation
In the past week, from the 19th to the 22nd, the selling pressure in the spot market temporarily subsided.
Therefore, driven by the futures contracts, there was a wave of small-range movements.
However, since the wave starting from the 22nd reaching 9W... the selling pressure in the spot market has continued.
Over the past two days, the total net selling pressure across the entire network has reached 600 million (active shorts - active longs).
The price has also dropped from 90k to around 86k... At least in the past two days, passive buy orders have not

Today Market 1 - Order Book
Today, after analyzing various data, it’s still a day with no clear direction at this price level.. Today, the US stock market is only open for half a session.. Let’s just have a peaceful Christmas Eve, shall we?
First, look at the order book..
From the pending orders, currently most of the spot orders are placed at the key integer levels below 86k and above 89k.. Not much reference value..
There is a gap in the order book around the current price up to 89k..
If there is a wave of buying pressure upwards, this zone is relatively easier to break through..
However,

The 90k positive gamma cap continues to have an impact, but the CVD shows a persistent bull divergence. However, is the price now accelerating negative Gamma as it goes down? Today’s market data can be described as the most divided day in recent times; there’s a hint of something unusual....
Today when I got up and took a look, 90k has once again become a major resistance zone.. As mentioned yesterday, the gamma is too large around 90k.. The damping is significant.
Because the hedging behavior of options market makers suppresses fluctuations... When prices rise, they have to sell spot to hedge

Today's observation: This up and down liquidity monkey business...
I watched for half a day today, and it's difficult to draw conclusions from the data.
The order book's pending orders are balanced, and the price difference is relatively balanced as well..
The skew I have been observing over the weekend is still operating in a slightly negative neutral zone. This wave has operated in the -10 to -15 range and has not moved down for now. I can only continue to observe.
The only thing that is somewhat relevant to today's market is GEX.
Currently, the two positive gamma peaks are

I haven't updated the daily options market strategies much in the past couple of days.. Mainly because there hasn't been any clear directional trend in the options market. Most strategies are delta-neutral (not betting on direction) and focus on volatility..
Let's look at the bets over the past 24 hours.. This covers the period from yesterday's Japanese yen rate hike landing, #BTC rising from 85k to 87k, to the latest market movements.. Actually, it's quite similar..
Key points:
1. The bearish BEAR PUT SPREAD is closing out (OI decreasing). After the yen rate hike, the market is no longer pani

87,000~87,300 caught in a short squeeze...
If there's a pullback... it could be an opportunity to observe and enter...
( Short squeeze = intraday support

Before the US stock market opens, let's update today's #BTC options GEX..
At 90k, the gamma has reversed.. A few days ago, 90k was consistently a large positive gamma, causing the price to encounter damping when it reached this range, reducing volatility. (Because in the positive gamma zone, options market makers hedge inversely; when the price rises, they sell)
This is also one of the reasons why it couldn't break through twice...
However, today at 90k, the gamma is in a negative state.. This means options market makers are hedging positively; the closer the price gets to 90k, the more they b

Last week, #BTC had a false breakout of around 89,500 and played around the SFP all week.. (Figure 1 green line)
Today, taking advantage of the liquidity vacuum zone during the weekend and early Monday, it finally broke through, hitting the previous 87,700 SFP.. (Figure 1 blue line)
It seems that 87,700 might still be played 1-2 more times this week...
Below that, there's an untested POC at 87,000 (Figure 2), both of which are low-volume zones to watch this week...
As for the previous low marked by the yellow line below Figure 1, it's not considered for now.. First, break through the mid-range