Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, the price-driving logic of Bitcoin has shifted from on-chain signals to off-chain funds and leverage, with 5 signals collectively determining the direction of this round of bull and bear markets.
Firstly, the flow of ETF funds is the core incremental engine. Data from Gemini and Glassnode shows that the total holdings of the Spot ETF exceed 515,000 Bitcoins, which is 2.4 times the issuance of miners during the same period. Research confirms that the inflow of ETF funds has a far greater explanatory power for prices than traditional crypto variables.
In the first quarter of 2024, there was a net inflow of 12.1 billion USD, directly driving Bitcoin to break its historical high; in November 2025, there was a net redemption of 3.7 billion USD (the largest monthly outflow since launch), which caused the price to drop from 126,000 USD to the 80,000 USD range. Now, a single-day outflow of 500 million USD from IBIT has an impact comparable to that of on-chain whales.
Second, perpetual financing and futures basis reveal the leverage cycle. The current annualized