ALengHODL

Daily K-line Trend Analysis: Yesterday's crash followed by a rebound is a technical correction. The daily 9-turn top signal has been confirmed, MACD fast and slow lines are returning to the 0 axis nearing a death cross, the 4-hour death cross continues, and the current rebound has not even broken through the downtrend line. As long as price has not effectively broken through 73,300 (key support/resistance swap level + dense trading zone), the trend should be viewed as bearish overall—the rebound should not be seen as a reversal. If it breaks below 66,000, it will head straight to 50,000—the up

Bitcoin is currently in a strong rebound rally phase with 7 consecutive daily up candles + continuous MACD momentum increase + weekly close above the line, showing short-term technical strength. Aleng maintains a bearish bias on larger timeframes but acknowledges that shorting throughout the 75,000～79,000 range was a left-side attempted short, carrying higher risk. Today's core operational logic splits into two lines: Upper side - three-tier left-side attempted shorts (75,100 light position quick take profit → 76,800～77,400 medium position → 78,900 trend short initial entry/84,000 add position

Bitcoin is currently in a relay triangle consolidation and observation phase. On March 12, the news of Iran's attack on a U.S. cruise ship pushed crude oil close to $100 again, upgrading war risks to a secondary level, and the bearish macro logic continues to strengthen. On the technical side, the daily chart closed a doji (relay model), and the 4-hour MACD shows continued volume contraction with a slight bearish divergence—direction remains undefined but downside pressure persists. On the operational level: maintain short positions near 70,000 and wait for direction confirmation; focus today

Daily K Trend Analysis: A-Leng has been continuously buying spot holdings and stated in this video that he is still actively purchasing spot assets. For users who have already built positions, it is recommended to add to their positions at key support levels; for users who have not yet built positions, it is advised to start building now and wait for the key support levels to be tested again for additional entries. Iran's blockade of the Persian Gulf and the turbulent international situation are positive for gold and crude oil, but generally bearish for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is ex

The Middle East situation has suddenly changed, with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and several high-ranking officials killed in the US and Israel airstrikes. How should the market view this historic shock?
1️⃣ Iran's military capabilities will be quickly weakened, and the conflict is unlikely to escalate into a long-term or large-scale war.
2️⃣ Oil, gold, and silver prices will surge, while the stock market plummets, but this is more likely due to panic sentiment under low liquidity.
3️⃣ If Iran demonstrates sustained counterattack capabilities this week, destroys major US and Israeli assets,

📅 Next Week Preview
Monday (2/16): U.S. stock markets are closed all day (Presidents' Day), avoid shorting.
Thursday (2/19): Early morning: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. Several Fed officials speak intensively, focusing on changes in the wording regarding the "pace of rate cuts."
Friday (2/20): This week's news is relatively dull, with the focus on Friday:
Morning 07:30: Japan January Core CPI (setting the tone for yen rate hikes and global arbitrage capital flows).
Evening 21:30: U.S. December PCE Price Index (the Fed's most watched inflation indica

Important Reminder
The United States will release their January CPI inflation data tonight. The market is currently optimistic, expecting a 2.5% increase. If this number is actually achieved, it would be a significant positive for the market. Because the strong non-farm payroll data from the day before yesterday has already delayed the rate cut expectations until July.
After the release tonight, hopefully the CPI can help rescue the poor market.

This week, global markets are entering a "storm" mode, with retail, non-farm payroll, and inflation data all releasing. Key points to watch:
🗓️ Tuesday evening: December retail data. As a "weather vane" for consumer countries, this directly reflects the purchasing power of American consumers, and its importance is self-evident.
🗓️ Wednesday evening: Major non-farm payroll & unemployment rate (revised). The market expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% with 70,000 new jobs. However, considering the previous poor performance of "small non-farm" ADP and job vacancy data, there's a big