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GateUser-016c81dc

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# Market Reflections on Current Geopolitical and Economic Dynamics
Let me share some thoughts on current market logic. First, let's examine Trump's current political base.
Regarding the midterm elections, Democrats have approximately an 85% probability of winning the House and about 52% probability of winning the Senate. Democrats are essentially in a position of "securing one, competing for two."
The odds of Trump facing impeachment during his term have already exceeded 70%. If Democrats retake both the House and Senate in November, this impeachment is virtually 100% certain, making Trump the
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Gold is falling, and a bunch of people are now saying gold's all-time high is 5600, but it's really just emotional chatter. After all, on X I saw people calling it bearish starting at 3500, getting wishy-washy at 4000, and saying it was a historic top at 5000.
Gold has always been viewed as a safe-haven asset, but with this Iran conflict, gold's performance has proven to be anything but a hedge. The issue comes down to liquidity. Gold currently has the most abundant liquidity among major asset classes. As war expectations materialize, markets are spontaneously dumping the most liquid assets av
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Gold is falling, and a bunch of people are now saying gold's all-time high is 5600, but it's really just emotional chatter. After all, on X I saw people calling it bearish starting at 3500, getting wishy-washy at 4000, and saying it was a historic top at 5000.
Gold has always been viewed as a safe-haven asset, but with this Iran conflict, gold's performance has proven to be anything but a hedge. The issue comes down to liquidity. Gold currently has the most abundant liquidity among major asset classes. As war expectations materialize, markets are spontaneously dumping the most liquid assets av
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Gold is falling, and a bunch of people have started saying gold's all-time high was at 5600. It's really just sentiment. After all, I saw people on X calling bearish from 3500, being ambiguous at 4000, and saying it was a historic top at 5000.
Gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe-haven asset, but with this Iran conflict, gold's performance can't be called a safe haven at all.
The reason comes down to liquidity. Gold currently has the most abundant liquidity among major asset classes. With war expectations priced in, the market is spontaneously liquidating the most liquid assets—this is
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Gold is falling, and a bunch of people have started saying gold's all-time high was at 5600. It's really just sentiment. After all, I saw people on X calling bearish from 3500, being ambiguous at 4000, and saying it was a historic top at 5000.
Gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe-haven asset, but with this Iran conflict, gold's performance can't be called a safe haven at all.
The reason comes down to liquidity. Gold currently has the most abundant liquidity among major asset classes. With war expectations priced in, the market is spontaneously liquidating the most liquid assets—this is
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Institutions in the A-shares market are all FOMO about a new concept, called electrical collaboration. I spent a night reviewing some opinions, and it's quite interesting.
Besides China Western Electric, are there other companies being researched under this concept?
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The Spring Festival Gala has become a showcase for China's AI applications. The robot performances were excellent, and the A-shares robots after the holiday should be doing well.
Friends holding positions in robots should be very happy. Happy Lunar New Year to everyone...
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After finishing dancing, I found that gold and silver had rebounded... Market sentiment has recovered a bit, but this is a rebound, not a reversal. In the evening, the dance teacher asked me if I was trading stocks. He lost 60,000 yuan in a month. I said I used to lose a lot in stock trading before, but I don't trade anymore. I didn't dare say too much, mainly afraid he would increase the lesson fee...
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Yesterday, while chatting casually in the Bibi group, I saw that some members had also organized their thoughts. I'll share it here as well, as a self-growth reflection on the path of being a rookie investor...
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Today's A-shares belong to space photovoltaics... My space photovoltaic energy stocks are 20cm...
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Is tonight's US stock market a precise ticket? Those tracking my positions, don't follow blindly, because you have no idea when I'll sell...
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For non-ferrous metals such as gold and silver, many people use index adjustments as a basis for bearish outlooks. There's nothing wrong with that, but this bearish sentiment is a consensus view.
The consensus bearish outlook will be quickly corrected by the market. Look at gold, which has already reached 4500, and silver is about to hit 80.
The biggest bullish factor for precious metals is hidden in the changes in the macro situation. The pattern of 2026 has turned into resource nationalism...
Venezuela, Iran, and the US-China currency sovereignty pricing battles are intertwined with a lonely
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Take a look at SanDisk, take a look at AMKR
Take a look at Patrick Star, take a look at silver and copper
Take a look at TEM, take a look at MRVL
Oh, these are all my holdings
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The impact of this matter in Venezuela, in the medium to long term, will be the starting point of a commodities bull market.
Venezuela's oil, Chile's copper, Argentina's lithium, and Bolivia's silver—these resources will remain firmly under U.S. "control."
On a deeper level, this is another event accelerating the decoupling of China and the U.S. At least in terms of energy resources, China and the U.S. will build mutually independent core resource supply circles that cannot be interfered with by the other.
In the future, oil, gold, silver, and industrial metals will each have their own buying
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The last trading day of 2025, the A-share index closed at 3968 points, close to the previous view that A-shares will stay around 3965 and not return to 4000 points.
Looking back at the long-term review, I think it was quite reasonable. In September, I mentioned that October would be volatile, and November would hit new highs.
A-shares reached their high point of the year in November. In mid-December, I predicted a small-scale rally at the end of the year, and December saw ten consecutive positive days:
Overall, this year's A-share market performed very well. Although we didn't catch the moment
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CME once again raised leverage ratios, seemingly determined to bring down leverage on precious metals, but the overall trend for non-ferrous metals will not change due to short-term suppression.
In the past month, global silver ETFs have increased by 1,000 tons, and the world's largest physical silver ETF holdings have reached 16,390 tons.
On the surface, LBMA inventories currently hold about 6,000 tons of spot silver, but in reality, they are essentially at zero (silver ETF lock-up), and COMEX inventories continue to be tight.
The latest data for the 1-year silver forward swap rate is -7.09%,
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Last night, silver experienced a sharp decline, and many people thought a major correction was coming. Actually, there's no need to panic so much. The CME raised margin requirements, and combined with overly enthusiastic sentiment, some speculative funds closed their positions en masse.
Silver's gains have indeed been substantial, and a correction was expected. However, this doesn't mean that the long-term fundamentals for silver or other non-ferrous metals are deteriorating. The current safety cushion for silver's correction hasn't been broken yet. From the perspective of futures market posit
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Silver is rising so much it makes me want to cry. The good news is that copper is also rising very well.
Even better news is that Patrick Star also increased by nearly 8 points last night.
Patrick Star's inventory has been cleared out. It's time for Patrick Star to make a comeback.
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